Small Craft Advisory 58, NWS Anchorage, AK

082 
FZAK52 PAFC 210044
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT WEST OF 160W. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT IN THE MORNING BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT IN THE MORNING BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1150 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG BLOCKING
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A
CORRESPONDINGLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
IS A DRY AND COLD PATTERN FOR ALASKA. IT IS ALSO A FAVORABLE
SET-UP FOR BORA WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS SURGES
OF POLAR AIR MOVE SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OUT AHEAD OF IT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT COMBINED WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KICK UP WINDS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.

BECAUSE OF THE BLOCKING HIGH THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS SITUATED WELL
SOUTH OF ALASKA...REMAINING SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES NORTH FOR MOST OF
THE DISTANCE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE CANADIAN LOW TO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE ONLY SYSTEM OF INTEREST TO ALASKA IS A DEEP
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH IS TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO
THIS LOW. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH COASTAL BAYS AND
PASSES.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
ONE DIFFERENCE OF NOTE IS THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT WHICH IN TURN WILL AFFECT WHICH AREAS SEE SNOW.
THE ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE JET MOVING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT CLOSER TO
SOUTHCENTRAL AND CAUSE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE YUKON TO THE GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED DOWNWARD
MOTION AS INDICATED BY THE MODEL DEPICTION OF A STRENGTHENING
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARD
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN GAPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MEANS WINDS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL...INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS.
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A STRONG SHORT-WAVE MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE TODAY WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW BY SATURDAY. THE BULK
OF POLAR AIR WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE UPPER
LOW FORMS...ALTHOUGH SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE SOME COOLING. FORMATION
OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION OUT INTO THE GULF
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
BY LATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
ON SATURDAY WHICH MEANS LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL DOMINATE...WHICH
FAVORS WINDS PRIMARILY THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN GAPS. AS SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH DEEPER AND MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED FROM THE GULF TO SOUTHCENTRAL...BRINGING SNOW BACK
INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW POSITION MEANS WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE SNOW
WILL FALL AS WELL AS HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTHWESTWARD AND REACH THE ALEUTIANS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL PRODUCE STRONGER
WINDS AND INCREASE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE BERING
SEA. A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF POLAR AIR WILL ACCOMPANY NEXT
SHORT-WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. EXPECT THE
ZONE OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL KICK SNOW SHOWERS INTO A
HIGHER GEAR.

LONG TERM FORECAST...DEEP TROUGH THAT SETS UP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SURFACE LOW OR LOWS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF BRINGING
OCCASIONAL SNOW ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL LOCATIONS WHILE MAINTAINING
STRONG GAP WINDS. MEANWHILE THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
TO THE WESTERN BERING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ALMOST ALWAYS TRY TO BREAK THESE STRONG
RIDGES DOWN TOO FAST...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST SOLUTIONS COULD SEE
A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG THE ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...127 128 130 132 150 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 126 127 128 129 130
                                        138 140 141 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 12