Small Craft Advisory 574, NWS Anchorage, AK

793 
FZAK51 PAFC 191544 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

UPDATE TO ZONES 120 AND 125
  
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A 1009 MB LOW FORMS 20 NM WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS SUN EVENING AND THEN MOVES TO 40 NM NORTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 1013 MB LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
740 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
740 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

088 
FZAK51 PAFC 192304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT. 
A 1009 MB LOW FORMS 20 NM WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS SUN EVENING AND
THEN MOVES TO 40 NM NORTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1013 MB LATE 
MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT AUG 18 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC FIELD INITIALIZATIONS WERE
REASONABLE WITH THE EXCEPT OF GPF. A COMPARISON OF MODEL QPF FIELDS
WITH RADAR DATA IN SW ALASKA SHOWS THAT THE MODELS ACROSS THE BOARD
WERE LAGGING IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN. WITH THIS EXCEPTION...
MODEL FORECAST TRENDS WERE SIMILAR AND REASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE CENTRAL FEATURE TODAY IS A LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 980'S
SURFACE LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND. THE STACKED SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES TO OVER NORTON SOUND LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INLAND OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA SUN. THE OCCLUDED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTH DELTA TO OVER CENTRAL BRISTOL BAY TO THE AK PEN. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY TO OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND GULF TONIGHT. NEXRAD RADARS SHOWED WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH ECHOS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SUGGESTS UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOUGH SW ALASKA WILL BRIEFLY COME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE MON BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE BRINGS
IN MOISTURE ON TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
RAIN SPREADS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MON. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE CLOUDY AND GENERALLY WET CONDITIONS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND PRODUCE
BRISK GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION. OF NOTE ARE GAP FLOWS THROUGH
TURNAGAIN ARM...KNIK RIVER VALLEY...AND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER. FLOWS
MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN SUN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
SOME AS FRONT PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HOWEVER...WESTERLY
FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT
WET CONDITIONS(RAIN/SHOWERS) THROUGH SUN. RIDGING LATE MON MAY BRING
A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE TUE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

GALES OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL TAKE HOLD AND BRING
A MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE SUNDAY TO THE BERING SEA. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE STILL WIDESPREAD HOWEVER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 160 165 185 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 12