Small Craft Advisory 554, NWS Anchorage, AK

707 
FZAK51 PAFC 092331
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 58N 147W WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 1007 MB
LOW WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO 325 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 1009 MB
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 20 KT BY LATE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT DURING THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 9 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT WED AUG 8 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SURFACE
SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM.  IN THE GULF GFS RUNS 3 TO 5 MB DEEPER
THAN NAM BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR PRESSURE GRADIENTS. EAST
FORECASTER LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION.  IN THE WEST THERE THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE MORE DIVERGENT ON FRI ONWARDS.  THE GENERAL SOLUTION IS

FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING
TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING A SIBERIAN LOW TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
THU NIGHT. THE RESULT IS AN ELONGATED N-S TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AL.  THE GFS DOES GENERATE
STRONGER WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM BY ABOUT 10 KTS.  THE WEST FORECAST
WILL REFLECT MORE GFS THAN NAM IN NEW PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY GULF LOW MOVES A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER NIGHT.  SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS MOVED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST FROM WHAT WE
EXPECTED YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL BERING HOLDS FOR ANOTHER 30 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...CONTINUED STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH FRI MORNING EAST OF
THE LINE ALONG 175W. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENING THU. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM INTENSIFYING ON FRI AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AL.

SOUTHWEST...AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...LITTLE ACTIVE
WEATHER WITH EXCEPTION OF STRATUS AND FOG IN VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN AND SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
CONTINUING THIS EVENING...GENERALLY CLOUDY INLAND WITH STRATUS ACROSS
MUCH OF COOK INLET TONIGHT.  EXPECTING GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
INLAND THU AND FRI WITH AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING
COOK INLET.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BY SAT NIGHT BERING LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL AL AND CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.  MOST OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN AK PEN SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN. WEAK GULF ON SAT LOW SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
WEATHER OVER MAINLAND AND DISSIPATES ON SUN.  THERMAL TROUGH DOES
APPEAR TO FORM OVER AK RANGE ON THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER SUSITNA AND
COPPER BASINS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP AUG 12