Small Craft Advisory 551, NWS Anchorage, AK

098 
FZAK51 PAFC 071134
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1009 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE TUE
AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WED
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WED NIGHT AT 1012
MB.
$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT AND MID TERMS. CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN TO RUN IS ALSO DOING VERY WELL. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST THINGS START TO DIVERGE BUT ARE STILL DOING BETTER
THAN NORMAL. LATE IN THE WEEK THE EC IS BRINGING IN DEEPER LOWS THAN
THE GFS WITH THERE PLACEMENT DIFFERING SOME AS WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA IS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT SITS
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW HAS BEGUN TO FILL AND WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW ARE BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST AND CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHCENTRAL. AS WE MOVE WEST
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH FOG
AND LOW STRATUS UNDERNEATH. BEHIND THIS RIDGING A LOW IS SLOWLY
TRACKING TO THE EAST NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW SITTING IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WAVES OF PRECIP TO AREAS ALL ALONG THE COAST AND DOWN TO KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW FINALLY
FALLS APART AND MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WHILE THE LOW
REMAINS IN THE GULF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROTECT THE MORE INLAND
LOCATIONS FROM THE BULK OF THE RAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP AWAY. AREAS
CLOSER TO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW IN THE GULF BRINGING SOME STRONGER
WINDS TO THESE AREAS. AS THE RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT A
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY BUT WILL QUICKLY
BREAK DOWN AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WHILE THE RIDGING IS
STILL IN PLACE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO
TONIGHT THEN WILL VEER OFF TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN TO THE AREAS IT PASSES. BEHIND
THIS LOW ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
BERING TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG RANGE THE RIDGING THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
BERING TUESDAY WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY TO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY
AND THEN REST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING IN SOME
NICER WEATHER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THIS RIDGE A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
BERING THURSDAY FROM RUSSIA AND DROP DOWN TO THE ALEUTIANS LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN WITH IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK AUG 12