Small Craft Advisory 536, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 312318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND
REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALONG
THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT
BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 20 KT. SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 PM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST
EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK. RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE EASTERN
BERING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND IS POISED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF MAIN FEATURES...BRINGING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE BERING TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AK. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BERING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN BERING HAS BROUGHT A TEMPORARY
END TO PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE RIDGING OVERHEAD...AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN COASTAL AREAS. RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE
BERING APPROACHES THE COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE BERING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN WILL SUBSEQUENTLY OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE AKPEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STRONG DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE DOMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172 175 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB JUL 12