Small Craft Advisory 533, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jun 30, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Jul 1, 2012, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 302351
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW WILL DROP OUT OF SIBERIA INTO THE NORTHWEST BERING 
SUN EVENING AND TRACK TO 63N 174W MON AFTERNOON AT 993 MB. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA SUN NIGHT AND 
MON.

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jun 30, 1:20 PM AKDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
120 PM AKDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE CLOSED LOW JUST INLAND FROM
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUKON.
SHORT-WAVES ARE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW FROM THE
YUKON TO EASTERN ALASKA INTERIOR AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN. A VERY WEAK UPPER RIDGE HAS
FORMED FROM THE ALASKA INTERIOR TO SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT AT THIS
POINT THERE ARE LOTS OF WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT WHICH ARE
HELPING TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS TRACKING QUICKLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A VERY WEAK LOW CAN BE FOUND
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST...BOTH OF WHICH ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. WEAK WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS ARE PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

LOOKING UPSTREAM ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS DROPPING OUT OF EASTERN
SIBERIA WITH A MUCH STRONGER ONE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC POISED
TO FOLLOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE ARE A
FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING PLACEMENT OF MESO-SCALE WAVES...BUT
THEY ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST VERY FAR OUT IN TIME ANYWAY.
THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF TONIGHT SPREADING
RAIN INTO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WEAKER WAVES WILL ROTATE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE TALKEETNA
AND WESTERN CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. DON'T EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE
VALLEYS...BUT CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME SUN TO BREAK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THESE WAVES ROTATE
BACK NORTHWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER
STRONGER WAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN COPPER BASIN
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE COPPER BASIN WILL REMAIN
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE YUKON
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THE WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH TIME. THUS DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY. SKY COVER
REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE...SO
EXPECT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...REMNANTS OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE BRINGING SHOWERS TO INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
EXIT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FIRST UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF
RUSSIA TODAY WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND CROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS TO FALL
INLAND WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL
MOTION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WHERE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
DROP OUT OF RUSSIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A FRONT INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL TRAVERSE
THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE LOW
DROPS OUT OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PRIMARY FEATURE DURING THE DAY 4 THROUGH
7 PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW WHICH DROPS OUT OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
BERING MID WEEK AND DROP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THUS EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...AS
THIS LOW IS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN BERING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
WILL OVERRIDE THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE AND MOVE OVER THE ALEUTIANS
AND SOUTHERN BERING. THIS WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO FORMATION OF
DENSE FOG ALONG WITH ANY RAIN THAT FALLS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUN 12

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.