Small Craft Advisory 531, NWS Anchorage, AK

155 
FZAK52 PAFC 301154
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 MB LOW 90 NM SW OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TODAY. A 992 MB LOW 250 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO
987 MB AND MOVE TO 250 NM NE OF SHEMYA TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE TO 60 NM WEST OF ST PAUL AND WEAKEN TO 992 MB TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-310300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-310300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-310300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-310300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-310300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-310300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-310300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-310300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT E 
OF ATKA...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-310300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-310300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-310300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-310300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 AM AKDT SUN JUL 29 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 100 KT JET
CURRENTLY CURVES ACROSS THE BERING SEA TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
THIS JET IS HELPING TO STRENGTHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH
OF THE DELTA THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS JET IS ALSO HELPING TO QUICKLY TRANSPORT A MUCH WEAKER
LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA LOW IS BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NAM
FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH FOR A LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THIS TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE GFS WAS FAVORED. IN THE LONG
TERM...MODELS ARE IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AT FIRST...BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK SO HPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A FRONT IS APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND THIS
MORNING...AND ALREADY SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE IN
PLACE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST HAS BEEN SUPPORTING GUSTS ACROSS
LOCAL GAPS EVEN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THESE LOCAL GAPS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. CROSS BARRIER FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
ANCHORAGE BOWL TODAY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY THIS EVENING AS
DOWNSLOPING SUBSIDES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW CENTER LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND THE FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS EXPERIENCING A SOGGY MORNING. A SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP TO BRING
BRIEF DRY CONDITIONS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ENSURE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING IN THE SHORT TERM. A LOW
IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL QUICKLY SKIRT ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TODAY AND REACH BRISTOL BAY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LOW ITSELF
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TODAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL BE UNDULATING ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC.  THE
JET WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT SYSTEMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BERING AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
IN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DRIER WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN JUL 12