Small Craft Advisory 515, NWS Anchorage, AK

446 
FZAK51 PAFC 231157
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH MON. A WEAK LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN WED.
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 23 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 15 KT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 15 KT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1205 PM AKDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS KAMISHAK BAY AND JUST WEST OF COOK INLET THIS
MORNING. SURFACE LOW HAS LOST DEFINITION AS IT HIT TERRAIN WHILE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
STEADY RAIN IS FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE SUSITNA
VALLEY TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS WELL AS OUT AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND INTO THE COPPER BASIN.
THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF RAIN ALONG A DEFORMATION
ZONE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. OTHERWISE...PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
AS FRONT PASSES BY. EXPECT SOME OF THIS WIND TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
ANCHORAGE BY MID AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL VORT-MAX ON EAST SIDE
OF LOW PASSES BY TO THE WEST AND PRESSURE RISES BECOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT AT THE SURFACE.

OUT WEST A SHORT-WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE REGION IS
DOMINATED BY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AND MOST MESO-SCALE FEATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND TONIGHT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EVEN IF ITS NOT
RAINING SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN ANCHORAGE AND PALMER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
AND INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL INCREMENTALLY DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH AND ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT FIRST...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHCENTRAL LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY SO DON'T EXPECT NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN
AS WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH AND LOW. MOST LIKELY THE PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL BE BRIEF...ESPECIALLY AS IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL SINCE IT WILL
ALREADY BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND WON'T HAVE ACCESS TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE SHORT-WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE BERING THIS MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. A VERY LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO RUSSIA SENDING SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BERING SEA. FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...WITH TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND THEN ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD AS THEY REACH
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
SOME OF THE WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS REGION OF LATE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT-WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
MAINLAND ALASKA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE FIRST COUPLE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH
INDICATES RAIN/WIND WITH THEM WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE BERING
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT
AHEAD OF IT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECT
A MIX OF DAYS WITH SUN AND CLOUDY DAYS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 12