Small Craft Advisory 510, NWS Anchorage, AK

941 
FZAK52 PAFC 202230
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1010 MB LOW 60 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL DISSIPATE NEAR KING
SALMON SAT NIGHT. A 1006 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR BETHEL SAT MORNING 
AND MOVES NEAR SAINT MARYS SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA. 

$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NAM NOW IN LINE WITH GFS SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF STORM SYSTEMS. NAM PREFERRED EAST OF 170W FOR ITS BETTER GRASP OF
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
PREFERRED OUT WEST FOR ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

MOST NOTABLE WEATHER MAKER TODAY IS ACTUALLY A SMALL BUT WELL
ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WAVE MOVED OUT OF WESTERN RUSSIAN
LAST NIGHT AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS FOLLOWED ITS ENTIRE PASSAGE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY KICKED OFF SHORTLY
BEFORE 6 AM THIS MORNING WITH A FEW STRIKES NEAR UNALAKLEET. THE AREA
OF GREATEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS THE EASTERN TANANA
VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT IN REPSONSE TO
THE SHORT WAVES CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT. ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONCERN.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG. LAST NIGHT
THE MARINE LAYER OUT WEST PUSHED AS FAR INLAND AS ILIAMNA AND
SLEETMUTE AND WAS RESISTENT TO DAYTIME INSOLATION TIL NOON TODAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN TONIGHT SO CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. IN THE GULF...THE MARINE LAYER HAS
REMAINED OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART...THANKS TO NORTHWESTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT CORDOVA AND SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
FLIRT WITH STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

STACKED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR ATKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY SAT AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA EVEN AS IT
EXTENDS ITS REACH EASTWARD. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT
NEAR BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG AND ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. RAIN BAND WILL NICK SAINT PAUL THIS EVENING AND SPREAD TO
COLD BAY BY MORNING.

.UPPER LEVELS AND MID TERM FORECAST...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TODAY. IT IS FLANKED BY TWO
UPPER LOW CENTERS. THIS STRONGER OF THE TWO IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
SECOND WEAKER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. IT IS
TRACKING DUE EAST AND SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRI AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE ITSELF SINKS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC BY SAT MORNING.

THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT WEST TO MOVE DIRECTLY INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ON SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD REACH BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND
FRIDAY EVENING...ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON SATURDAY. THE LOW
STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SO MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK...

NO NEW STRONG SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE COMING WEEK. A MORE
SEASONABLE PATTERN SHOULD EMERGE...CLOUDY AND COOL ALONG THE
COASTS...WARM AND SUNNY INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JUL 12