Small Craft Advisory 503, NWS Anchorage, AK

824 
FZAK51 PAFC 172312
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1015 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 1005 MB
ABOUT 240 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WED EVENING THEN MOVE TO 
180 NM WEST OF PRINCE RUPERT BY THU EVENING. 

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE NAM HAVE NOW SETTLED ON A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND OUT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING IS KEEPING THE
LEAD UPPER LOW (THE BRISTOL BAY LOW) FROM MOVING AS QUICKLY EAST INTO
THE GULF THAN FIRST THOUGHT. THE NEW CONSENSUS FORECAST KEEPS THE LOW
IN PLACE UNTIL THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING LOW CAN MOVE
THROUGH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS IN STORE FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED
FOR BOTH DOMAINS THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY...THEN ALLOW FOR
THE BRISTOL BAY UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE IT TOO PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS OF THE STATE SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM TO AFFECT
INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE STEADY
RAIN OR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AT BAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY STAYING SOUTH OF KING
SALMON BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GULF FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN GENERAL. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC JUL 12