Small Craft Advisory 462, NWS Anchorage, AK

236 
FZAK52 PAFC 032351
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO KUSKOKWIM BAY
WED AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AT 1003 MB THU AFTERNOON. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
THU. 

$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING DOWN ITS
WEST SIDE PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A WEAKER UPPER LOW OVER KING SALMON IS PUSHING
EAST TOWARD THE COOK INLET AN IS THREATENING TO BISECT THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE RUNNING DOWN THE CENTER OF THE STATE. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD WESTERN
ALASKA AND HAS BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DELTA COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THEY ARE STILL
HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE LOW COMING OUT OF SIBERIA. THE NAM AND EC
MODELS HAVE THE CLOSEST AND MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION, WHILE THE GFS
HAS BEEN A BIT ERRATIC FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. BASED ON THIS, WE HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE NAM MODEL TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR KING SALMON WILL MOVE INTO THE COOK INLET
TONIGHT AND LINK WITH THE LOW OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY TO FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
SIBERIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL
BECOME SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA,
ANCHORAGE, THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
KODIAK ISLAND, KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND A
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE BERING WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...SURFACE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS TONIGHT BRINGING PERIOD OF RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS THE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE  WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT SWINGS
NORTH ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BECOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA BY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF

THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JUL 12