Small Craft Advisory 453, NWS Anchorage, AK

396 
FZAK51 PAFC 252249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN CHANGE IS IN FULL EFFECT TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE BERING SEA IS PUSHING EASTWARD AND DISPLACING THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST AS WELL. THIS SHIFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TUESDAY...AND THEN PARKING THERE FOR
AWHILE. THE RESULT IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR THAN WHAT WAS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE Y-K DELTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE INTERIOR. THE FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF THIS
LOW PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA LAST NIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL THIS MORNING.
.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. EVEN FARTHER OUT THEY ARE CONSISTENT FOR THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER THE TIMING ON DETAILS SUCH AS SHORTWAVES
ARE NOT ALIGNED WELL. THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS AS TO
WHEN THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND WHEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
IS THE LAST HOLDOUT WITH JUST SOME SHOWERS AROUND...BUT THE MORE
MOIST AIR IS FINALLY INCREASING RH VALUES AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP THE BASIN OUT OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE Y-K DELTA. SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA RELAXES.
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP MARINE STRATUS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE GULF COAST
REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE PAST WEEKS WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS INCREASING SNOW MELT. A NUMBER OF STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
APPROACHING BANK FULL AS THE RAIN AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. CONVERSELY THE FREEZING LEVELS ARE DROPPING AGAIN AS THE COOLER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE QUESTION ON RIVER
LEVELS IS WHETHER THE LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
RIVERS FROM FLOODING OR WHETHER THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME RAIN WILL
PUSH THEM OVER THE BANK. AT THIS TIME THE THINKING IS THAT BECAUSE
THE MAIN REASON RIVERS ARE HIGH IS DUE TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS,
THE LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE A GREATER FORCE THAN SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND THEREFORE THE STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE AT OR NEAR THEIR
CREST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE REPLACED BY EASTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. OVERALL THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDY WEEK WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF RAIN. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER
LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND. IF THIS HAPPENS...EASTERLY WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
AREAS OF RAIN FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 12