Small Craft Advisory 450, NWS Anchorage, AK

675 
FZAK52 PAFC 242257
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251500-
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW 220 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL WILL DISSIPATE LATE SUN
NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW NEAR NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE NEAR HOOPER BAY MON
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.
$$

PKZ150-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-251500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-251500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-251500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...WINDS BECOMING NW 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-251500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-251500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
$$

PKZ179-251500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

336 
FZAK52 PAFC 251134
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR NOME WILL MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING MON AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN BERING BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-260300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT NO ONE MODEL HAS SOLID HANDLE
ON ALL FEATURES. GFS INITIALIZED BERING SEA LOW BEST BUT UKMET
CAPTURES TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF EASTERN ALEUTIANS
BETTER. HIGH RES NAM RESOLVES TURNAGAIN ARM PORTAGE VALLEY WINDS
WHICH GFS FAILS TO PULL DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVELS PRESENTLY DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OUT
OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY MON
EVENING THE WHOLE OF THE BERING SEA AND MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WILL
BE UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS THOUGH THE MAIN STORM STACK WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF
ALASKAN WATERS.

AT THE SURFACE...A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BENEATH THE
MAIN UPPER CENTER AND BY SUN MORNING SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR COLD
BAY. MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT IS SHOULD
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY OR KODIAK ISLAND
AND END UP IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY MON AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE FURTHER OUT WEST...THE OLD BERING SEA LOW WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO A MUCH LARGER FEATURE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINED LOW ENDS UP SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB. THE LOW WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BY TOMORROW EVENING...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR ALASKA TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND WILL KEEP THE AREA CLOUDY DAMP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. LITTLE WIND LEFT WITH THIS FEATURE SO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE QUICKLY BECOMING REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING.

OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE IS THE DEVELOPING LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30
MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
TO KODIAK ISLAND BY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
CHUGACH RANGE WILL SERVE TO PREVENT MOST OF THE RAIN FROM MAKING ITS
WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANCHORAGE OR THE MAT VALLEY...BUT WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE COULD
SEE A LENGTHY PERIOD OF WETTING SUMMER RAINS. CONCERNS EXIST
REGARDING FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CLASSIC FORMULA FOR SUMMER
FLOODING IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA CONSISTS OF A LENGTHY PERIOD OF WARM
SUNNY WEATHER THAT SWELLS GLACIER FED STREAMS FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY
A LONG PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT BUT WHEN ADDED TO ALREADY HIGH
GLACIAL RUNOFF AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SOME STREAMS GOING ABOVE
BANKFUL. WILL COORDINATE WITH RFC.

.OUTLOOK...

PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE ONE. BY
MIDWEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY EASTERLY FLOW
EMBEDDED WITH NUMEROUS SMALL DISTURBANCES. FOR MAINLAND ALASKA...THIS
MEANS ALTERNATING DAYS OF RAIN AND SUNSHINE. FOR THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER...CLOUDS FOG AND PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JUN 12