Small Craft Advisory 442, NWS Anchorage, AK

044 
FZAK52 PAFC 201126
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210300-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA PERSISTS THROUGH THU
EVENING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST BERING SEA THROUGH THU NIGHT. A PACIFIC LOW
MOVES TO 185 NM SOUTH OF ADAK AT 999 MB THU AFTERNOON...AND THEN
MOVES TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT 997 MB THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT...GUSTING TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT...GUSTING TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT...GUSTING TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT...GUSTING TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-210300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-210300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. S AND E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. S AND E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-210300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 20 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND SYNOPTIC FORECAST TRENDS AS A WHOLE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE WED
NIGHT/THU. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER THAN THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THIS IS A BREAK FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN WHICH MATCHED WELL
WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BRINGING GALES TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU MORNING. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW MOVES TO THE
SE BERING SEA WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 1002 MB. THE GFS TAKES A
POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM/ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

.500 MB...
THE BROAD LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DRIFTS SOUTH OF OVER THE SE
GULF ON THU. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THU AS A WEAK
WAVE MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

SURFACE...STRATUS AND FOG WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN BERING SEA...SW COAST...AND OVER THE NORTH GULF. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. AN INTERESTING NOTE THIS MORNING IS THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER THE MARINE BOUNDARY LOW IN COASTAL
BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS
THE MAINLAND TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WED AND THU AS THE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA PUSHES COOLER AIR OVER THE SW
MAINLAND. UNSTABLE AIR WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL INLAND AREAS AND NEAR THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN
RANGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STABILITY INDICES SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO PROVIDING INSTABILITY...THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

OUT OVER THE GULF...WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER THE COLDER WATERS HAS
RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER NORTHERN GULF
WATERS IN THE PAST DAY. AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
RISE ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE AN EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF IMPINGING ON SOME NEARBY COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

SOUTHWEST...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE STATUS AND
FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. COOLER AIR
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO MAINLY BE CONFINED ALONG THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGES THROUGH THU.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAINLY ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE AFFECTING THIS
REGION...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TOWARDS FRIDAY TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG
WILL BE COMMON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER MOST OF THE BERING REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE MAINLAND BY THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GIVE WAY SOME BUT GENERALLY REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ALASKA...ALLOWING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY END UP IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GENERAL MODERATING
(COOLING) TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF
THIS WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS WETTER CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY TOWARDS COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 2012