Small Craft Advisory 441, NWS Anchorage, AK

005 
FZAK51 PAFC 190506 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
905 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

UPDATED ZONE 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DRIFTS SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED. 
$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
905 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

603 
FZAK51 PAFC 191113
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC BY WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA.
$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON JUN 18 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND SYNOPTIC FORECAST
TRENDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER AND MORE INTENSE WITH LOW WHICH MOVES SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON THU. TRENDED MORE WITH THE SLOWER AND WEAKER
ECMWF/GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...SUSITNA
VALLEY TO OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ALASKA TODAY. BY
TUESDAY...THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AND INTENSIFIES AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH WED. THE
MOST UNSTABLE ARE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCERNTRAL ALASKA AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVER THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY. SO THESE AREAS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL AREAS OF SW ALASKA WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STABLE AND COOL WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BERING REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IT HOLD ON WESTERN COASTAL
SW ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE EVIDENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND COASTAL LOCALS IN SW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM A LITTLE EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF PALMER AND EAST OF ANCHORAGE AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
850MB/700MB STEERING FLOWS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
ONTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THESE MOUNTAINS AND BEYOND. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST ANCHORAGE HAS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE AT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY THAT
WILL BE PRESENT. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALBEIT WITH LESS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER FOR THE
CONVECTION GIVEN THE MOVEMENT SOUTH AND EAST BY TUESDAY OF THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF AREAS
THIS MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MANY INLAND AREAS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ALONG THE COASTS.

SOUTHWEST...
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN IS SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COASTAL
AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE CLOUDY AND COOL SIDE WITH ON SHORE
FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE WARM INLAND WITH AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING
CONVECTION...MAINLY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT INTO THE FORECAST AS WE NEAR THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST IN THE BERING SEA. THE MAIN ISSUES
CONCERN THE PERSISTENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND IF IT IS PUSHED NORTH AND EAST BY A POTENTIAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE MAINLAND. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH A BLEND CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JUN 12