Small Craft Advisory 418, NWS Anchorage, AK

827 
FZAK51 PAFC 091137
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN ON SUN. A PACIFIC LOW WILL
TRACK TO AROUND 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 999 MB SUN
MORNING...THEN MOVE TO 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1004
MB MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LOWS ARE ROTATING AROUND
EACH OTHER OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BRISTOL BAY. MULTIPLE UPPER
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THESE
LOWS ARE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND PRODUCING
AREAS OF RAIN. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK LOW MOVING FROM THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN TO INTERIOR ALASKA WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

A RIDGE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING
SEA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG. A MODERATE STRENGTH
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS TRACKING UP THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z MODELS INITIALIZE WELL WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN RESOLVING THE MESO-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN INTO ANCHORAGE/MAT VALLEY/AND
NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TODAY. THUS...WILL BASE PRECIP FORECASTS
OFF THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF SUNDAY AS
WELL AS TRACK OF LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL TREND OF A FASTER TRACK INTO THE GULF WHILE
OUT WEST WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE INHERITED WHICH IS NOT FAR FROM
THE 12Z SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH STEADY RAIN WILL EXTEND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THIS LINE WILL
SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR TURNAGAIN ARM AND ANCHORAGE. WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING AGGRESSIVELY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS. THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE
THIS FLOW WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW AND WOULD NOT PRODUCE AND DOWNSLOPE
AFFECT. THE 18Z MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING A DEEPER LAYER
OF EASTERLY FLOW WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE STILL THINK ANCHORAGE AND
VICINITY WILL SEE SOME RAIN...BUT IT MOST LIKELY WILL BE MORE SHOWERY
OR INTERMITTENT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVES  WILL EXIT TO THE
WEST TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY FOCUSED
LIFT ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECT PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A SPOKE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MORE SUN AND LESS PRECIP. MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER LEVELS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE
GULF COAST AREAS. THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE RIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF LOW TO THE SOUTH AND RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SO LIKELY
JUST A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SIMILAR TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA UPPER WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOG AND STRATUS WILL
ALSO REMAIN A THREAT. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ENSUE SUNDAY
WITH WEAKER WAVES MOVING OVERHEAD AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY AS A
TRANSIENT RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WILL GET SQUEEZED FROM BOTH SIDES WITH EASTERLY WAVES
COMING OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS PUSHING UP
AGAINST THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. EVEN WITH THIS THE EFFECTS
WILL REMAIN THE SAME...LOTS OF FOG AND STRATUS. MEANWHILE...A GALE
FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND THE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS IT STRETCHES APART ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LOW OVER THE GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL EXIT
TO THE EAST MID WEEK WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN NEAR THE
ALASKA/CANADA BORDER. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. OUT WEST MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
FORMATION OF A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC
WHICH WOULD FOCUS PRECIP AND WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
RIDGING IN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ONE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUN 12