Small Craft Advisory 416, NWS Anchorage, AK

882 
FZAK52 PAFC 080254 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

CORRECTED ZONE 165

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081500-
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH FRI. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SW OF ATTU AT
992 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-081500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-081500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
700 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-081500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-081500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-081500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-081500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.
$$

687 
FZAK52 PAFC 081155
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WILL WEAKEN ON SUN. A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 370 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA AT 990 MB SAT MORNING...THEN TRACK TO 290 NM WEST OF SHEMYA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MAINLAND. OVER THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARD BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW...WEAKENING
TYPHOON MAWAR...MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 3 TO 4
DAYS. THE NAM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS...BUT THEN BECOMES AN OUTLIER AGAIN. THE GFS WAS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND BERING SEA...WHILE THE NAM WAS
USED FOR THE SHORT TERM IN THE EAST. FOR THE LONG TERM...A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED AS THEY HAVE BOTH BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AK. OTHER THAN A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER
THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RANGE.

SOUTHWEST/BERING/ALEUTIANS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EASTERLY WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AK MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE.

AS FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS CLOUDS AND
FOG UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WILL BE OVER THE BERING SEA...HOWEVER THERE COULD
BE SOME OVER LAND AT TIMES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON MAWAR WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK BRINGING
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF CLOUDY/RAINY AND SUNNY/WARM CONDITIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE