Small Craft Advisory 407, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 032304
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 225 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AT 999 MB MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE.

$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND BECOMING SE 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF SHEMYA. SEAS 7
FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT. WEAK RIDGING IS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE
AND ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR AWHILE.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE INTERIOR
OF THE STATE FROM THE YUKON WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT FROM THE
EARLY MORNING RUNS TODAY. THERE IS A QUESTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT IT
APPEARS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW REMAINING JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND NEVER CROSSING THE CHAIN IS MOST LIKELY.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A FRONT FROM THIS LOW A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN DOES THE ECMWF. THE BIGGEST IMPACT IS THAT THE
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WITH THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. THIS
WILL KICK OFF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN. BY TOMORROW THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN AREAS 152 AND 161. SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA SHOULD BE MORE STABLE OVERALL TOMORROW.
HITTING THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST TO WEST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF A
FORECAST CHALLENGE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WAVES BUT SOME GOOD CLOUD BREAKS IN BETWEEN
THEM.
FOG IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AS IT HAS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A GRADUAL MOVE TOWARD MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF EASTERLY WAVES
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...BRINGING ALTERNATING PERIODS OF
CLOUDY/RAINY AND SUNNY/WARM CONDITIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 12