Small Craft Advisory 405, NWS Anchorage, AK

240 
FZAK51 PAFC 022315
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE GULF
SUN NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MON.
$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT
BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS 3 FT.

.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 5 
FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

JM

257 
FZAK51 PAFC 031151
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE GULF
SUN NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT-TERM.
MAIN THRUST IS GULF LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY AND MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE GULF FROM SAT THROUGH AT
LEAST MON.  A THERMAL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE
SAT. IN THE BERING REGION A LOW EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT WHERE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
SUN...MEAN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AL SUN
AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON MON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY THERE IS EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT ARCING FROM THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO THE SOUTHERN KUSKO
MTNS. MODELINGS INDICATING MODEST CAPE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. T-STORMS LIKELY IN THIS ZONE
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  ALSO EXPECTING MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK OVER COOK
INLET LATER THIS EVENING GIVING THE RAIL BELT A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT...MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...LARGE AREAS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN APPEARING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT
MORNING. ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN SUSITNA BASIN SAT PM.
SOME CLEARING SAT PM OVER COOK INLET.

SOUTHWEST...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF T-STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WOODS-TIKCHIK MTNS NORTHWARD. POTENTIAL FOR
T-STORMS SAT PM ON KING SALMON-PORT ALSWORTH AXIS. SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SAT AND SUN ELSEWHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.

BERING REGION...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING.
EASTERN BERING UNDER RIDGE SO DRY BUT PLAGUED BY STRATUS AND FOG.
WOULD EXPECT GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AM IN
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH THERMAL LOW
OVER INTERIOR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING. A WEAK FRONT IS
PROGED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE TUE NIGHT...BUT IS
SLOW TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN GULF. ALL THIS MEANS A REASONABLE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE FOR MAINLAND ZONES...PM SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON MON SLOWLY MOVES TO
THE EAST TUE AS IT WEAKENS. NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS IN BERING
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD...IN OTHER WORDS A MIX OF STRATUS AND FOG.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP JUN 12