Small Craft Advisory 398, NWS Anchorage, AK

201 
FZAK51 PAFC 311158
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 MB LOW 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1002 MB LATE THU NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN
WEAKEN TO 1006 MB 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 31 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON GULF OF
ALASKA SYSTEM...THE SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND SLOWLY
DISSIPATES THROUGH FRI AND THEN FORMS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE WEST HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON FRI ALLOWING
A FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU MORNING AND INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING EARLY FRI MORNING. A THERMAL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT GULF SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND WITH SHOWERS OVER
BRISTOL BAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY THU MORNING. SOME MODERATE
EAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EASTERN BERING
IS PRODUCING MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO
CENTRAL AK PEN.  AREA OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL T-STORMS IN THE
FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY OUTSIDE ANC AOR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN ALONG THE COAST TURNING TO SHOWERS TOWARD
MORNING. EAST WINDS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND.

SOUTHWEST...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THU BECOMING
ISOLATED ON FRI. EAST TO NORTH WINDS IN BRISTOL BAY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

BERING REGION...GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS. SOME CLEARING AT TIMES
IN THE EASTERN BERING THIS AFTERNOON.  NORTH FLOW CONTINUING THU
NIGHT. RAIN MOVES INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE THU MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY FRI MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER GULF WITH
RIDGE OVER EASTERN BERING ON SAT AND SUN WITH RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVER GULF ON MON AND TUE WITH
THERMAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN INTERIOR OF THE STATE.  FOR MOST OF
MAINLAND ZONES SAT THROUGH TUE...EXPECT GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAY 12