Small Craft Advisory 396, NWS Anchorage, AK

674 
FZAK51 PAFC 302305
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311500-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST WEAKENS THU MORNING. A 988 MB LOW
200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WEAKENS TO 1004 MB FRI
MORNING...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-311500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-311500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-311500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-311500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF KODIAK ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALASKA PENINSULA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW IS ALREADY DISSIPATING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS
FRONT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SINCE YESTERDAY. A SECOND OCCLUDED FRONT IS POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO CENTRAL ALASKA. A MORE
BROAD RIDGE CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH
THE ECMWF THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL DRIFT AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE IN THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW IN
THE BERING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE HPC BLEND WAS
FAVORED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY...A DISSIPATING FRONT IS LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST AND HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
OVERNIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS. A SECOND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
AND BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LOCAL GAPS.  HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS THAT THE WEST GULF
EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT.

DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL DRY WITH
ONLY THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA
REGIONS THIS MORNING. A SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND DELTA WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LINGERING NEAR KODIAK
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE
NORTH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN BERING...EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE BERING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION OVER MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MAINLAND THAT WILL USHER IN
DRIER WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 130 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN