Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 378, NWS Anchorage, AK

May 25, 2012

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at May 25, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 25, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

404 
FZAK51 PAFC 251149
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260300-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 90 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1001 MB SAT
MORNING...THEN WILL MOVE TO AROUND 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 1007 MB SUN MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN ON
SAT.

$$

PKZ120-260300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-260300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-260300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-260300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 
KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-260300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT THIS MORNING. 
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-260300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-260300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-260300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-260300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING
TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$
5 follow-up statements
651 
FZAK51 PAFC 252231
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL 
TRACK TO 100 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY EARLY SAT. THIS COMPLEX LOW 
WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 1007 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 350 NM EAST 
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING N WIND 15 KT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS EAST...N
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. EAST
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$
742 
FZAK51 PAFC 261151
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX 998 MB LOW 160 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO AROUND
270 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1002 MB SUN MORNING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION MON
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$
812 
FZAK51 PAFC 261635 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
830 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

UPDATED ZONES 121 125 130 132 138 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX 998 MB LOW 160 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO AROUND
270 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1002 MB SUN MORNING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION MON
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
830 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
830 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
830 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT N 15 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
WIND BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
830 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
830 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
830 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
830 AM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$
452 
FZAK51 PAFC 262233
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271500-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A COMPLEX 1000 MB LOW 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA AT 1009 MB SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-271500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT E 20 KT E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-271500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-271500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-271500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-271500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-271500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$
848 
FZAK51 PAFC 271151
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280300-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX 1002 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ON MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A NORTH PACIFIC WEATHER FRONT MON
EVENING AND TRACK TO AROUND 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 983 MB
TUE MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-280300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-280300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-280300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-280300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-280300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-280300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-280300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-280300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-280300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at May 24, 12:15 PM AKDT, 15 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 24, 12:15 PM AKDT, 15 hours 45 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME VERY
DYNAMIC FEATURES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ALASKA THIS MORNING...
WHICH IS A LITTLE UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH A CORRESPONDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A 100KT+ SOUTHERLY JET IS RIDING UP THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH HELPING TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE UPPER CENTER. A NICE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO
NOTED STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST
GULF. A GALE FORCE FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM IS A STRONG TROUGH AXIS WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
AND KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOME FAIRLY INTENSE
SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
TROUGH ARRIVED. INTERESTINGLY THESE SHOWERS COINCIDED WITH STRATUS
AND FOG AT THE SURFACE INDICATING THAT THE INSTABILITY WAS ELEVATED.
THE 12Z KING SALMON SOUNDING REFLECTS THIS WELL.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUKON MOVED INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS YOU HEAD
FURTHER INLAND. THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT IT IS
LIKELY BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE LIFT OVER COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. VERIFICATION BASED ON 18Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GFS IS JUST A TAD TOO FAST. MODELS
ALSO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF PACIFIC SYSTEM. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE MULTIPLE
SURFACE LOWS WHICH WILL FORM AS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE
GULF THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
SOLUTION.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF LOW MOVING TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY...HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS BOTH STABLE
AND UNSTABLE LAYERS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION...BUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL
PREVENT DESTABILIZATION OF THE SURFACE-BASED LAYER. BASED ON THIS
WILL SIDE MORE TOWARD A STRATIFORM RAIN FORECAST THAN A SHOWERY
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH
MORE STABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT
AHEAD OF PACIFIC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF. THE BULK OF RAIN WILL
HANG UP ALONG THE COAST WITH JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS INLAND.

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND
PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN GAPS INCLUDING TURNAGAIN
ARM AND ANCHORAGE/THE MAT VALLEY/AND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
ON SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BUT INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE A
PASSING SHOWER. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BECOMES MUCH
MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF PUSHING
WAVES WESTWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. AT A MINIMUM EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES THERE
IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A GLOOMY STRATIFORM RAIN TO SET IN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AS THE DOWNSTREAM PORTION PROGRESSES INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE UPSTREAM BERING PORTION REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF
IT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING AND SOME SUN BREAKS OVER INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

THE PACIFIC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME MOISTURE SPREAD INTO BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER WAVE OUT AHEAD
OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WHICH HAS BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE OF LATE. AS THE
LOW TRACKS AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND A RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT AND STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. SO IT IS LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS
THE REGION. OF COURSE...AS IS TYPICAL WITH A RIDGE DURING THE
SUMMER...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BECOME ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW A STORM OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
TO TRACK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BERING WILL THEN AMPLIFY
THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH THE ALEUTIAN LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE ONE OVER THE ALEUTIANS THIS
WEEKEND WILL THEN SET UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEAK. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE
SYNOPTIC FORECAST. THE CHALLENGE IS ATTEMPTING TO FORECAST THE
SMALLER SCALE WAVES MOVING AROUND THESE UPPER LOWS...WHICH IS
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. BASED ON WEATHER USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITION OF THESE LOWS EXPECT A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PATTERN TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL START OUT DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW MOVES IN. AFTER THE
LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS DROPS SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK BENIGN
WEATHER WILL SETTLE BACK IN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 24, 4:00 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC4 days
May 25, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days
May 25, 10:15 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC6 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.