Small Craft Advisory 374, NWS Anchorage, AK

367 
FZAK51 PAFC 241156
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 90 NM EAST OF SAND POINT FRI
AFTERNOON  AT 1002 MB. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF TONIGHT AND TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON
AND LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

156 
FZAK51 PAFC 242312
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW 360 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB 
AND MOVE TO 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE TO 345 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY SAT AFTERNOON 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI AND THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SAT.
$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING N 15 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...WINDS BECOMING SW 20
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 24 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT BY MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
125 PM AKDT WED MAY 23 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STARTING TO SEE FASTER PROGRESSION
OF FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WHICH ENCOMPASSES
THE ALASKA REGION. THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC DRIVEN BY
A STRONG UPPER JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND WILL BE ONE OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS GETTING A RESPITE TODAY FROM EASTERLY WAVES
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUKON STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS
WESTWARD. SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTHCENTRAL FOR
THE MOMENT...BUT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTERNOON HEATING
FROM THE SUN WILL ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO DEVELOP CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER INLAND AREAS).

SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS RIGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BERING TROUGH.
WEAK UPPER WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SIMILAR RESULTS CAN BE EXPECTED
AS THESE WAVES TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA
LATER TODAY.

AS THE PACIFIC STORM MOVES NORTHWARD THE TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING IS NOW BEING FORCED
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HANDLING OF
BERING TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY COMMON CHARACTERISTIC IN
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS COMPARED WITH SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS
A STRONGER TROUGH WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. THE SPEED OF THE
TROUGH IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEMGLB ABOUT
6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS. THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING WILL DETERMINE
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION AND PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW PLAN TO GO WITH AN AVERAGE TROUGH POSITION AND CONTINUE A MORE
BROAD-BRUSH FORECAST THAN IS PREFERRED FOR THE ONE DAY FORECAST.
WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR NOW...
RECOGNIZING THAT THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE THE TROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION
MIGHT SQUELCH THIS POSSIBILITY THOUGH. IT IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN BRINGING IN CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AS THE YUKON RIDGE SHIFTS BACK EASTWARD AND WEAK UPPER WAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY. FOR NOW PLAN TO STICK WITH A FORECAST WHICH
INCLUDES SOME SUNSHINE TO PROVIDE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

MODELS SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH HANDLING OF
PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE GULF...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THIS.

GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH NEXT LOW SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND IT IS CONSISTENT WITH INHERITED
GRIDS. THUS LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME...EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS A SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING MORE STABILITY
ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WARMER INLAND VALLEYS. THEREFORE...MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RECEDES BACK EASTWARD TONIGHT WEAK UPPER
WAVES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL CURVE NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY SINGLE FEATURE STRONG ENOUGH TO FOCUS
PRECIPITATION OR CLOUDS IN ONE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE NEXT MAJOR FEATURE IS AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL APPROACH
SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY. THERE IS QUIET A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
FORECAST A GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
GULF OUT AHEAD OF A STORM MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC. WITH A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED THERMAL TROUGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA THIS WILL REALLY
TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL RESULTING IN
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE USUAL MOUNTAIN GAPS.
THE COPPER BASIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SUNSHINE DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AND IF THEY DO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.

THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE IN RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH MORE
STABLE AIR TO SOUTHCENTRAL ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST
AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS INLAND.
AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TOP SIDE OF THE
LOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. IT IS TOO SOON FOR MODELS TO RESOLVE THESE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...BUT THESE HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A CLOUDY
AND WET WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER WAVES BETWEEN
THE RIDGE TO EAST AND TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH WILL BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS WILL CHANGE ON
THURSDAY AS THE BERING TROUGH SWINGS NORTHWARD ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY. LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING THERMAL
TROUGH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS..DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS FIRST TROUGH WEAKENS
THURSDAY NIGHT A SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE IN OUT AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC STORM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THESE FORCING MECHANISMS AND CAN THUS EXPECT TO REMAIN
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE PACIFIC STORM WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA AREAS. AFTER THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHWEST PACIFIC STORM
TO TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PREDICTABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WITHIN A PATTERN SUCH AS
THIS IS USUALLY PRETTY LOW AND IT IS OFTEN BEST TO FOCUS ON THE
TRENDS. THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
PUT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF AT RISK OF EASTERLY WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE IS COULD RESULT IN VARIABLE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR TURN IN TO A COLD STABLE RAIN.

MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD AND TAP INTO PACIFIC ENERGY. THIS
IN TURN COULD BRING ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM INTO THE GULF THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW. THE BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL STAY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12