Small Craft Advisory 365, NWS Anchorage, AK

291 
FZAK51 PAFC 181141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

480 
FZAK51 PAFC 182326
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT AND REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST SUN.
$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...E GUSTS 30 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...E GUSTS TO 
30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 20 KT IN
THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS S OF KALGIN ISLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS S OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS S OF KALGIN
ISLAND.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1225 PM AKDT THU MAY 17 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A MODERATE STRENGTH UPPER RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ASIA TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH LOW CENTERS AT EITHER END.
AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH LOW TO
MID LEVEL INVERSIONS. THE END RESULT IS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH
AREAS OF PRECIP AND FOG. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN NOTABLY
COLD...ALTHOUGH JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MINOR DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH POSITION OF FRONT
IN THE GULF AND LOW POSITIONS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS BUT MODELS ALL
BASICALLY SHOW THE SAME GENERAL IDEA. ONLY MINOR EDITS WILL BE MADE
TO EXISTING FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
AND CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF NORTHWARD. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN OR
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A COOL AND WET WEEKEND TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST WHILE DESTABILIZATION INLAND (WITH THE RIDGE MOVING
AWAY) WILL BRING A RETURN TO DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORMALLY THIS PRODUCES STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
AREAS...BUT THERMAL TROUGH HAS NOT BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED INLAND
YET SO PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE TIGHT ENOUGH TO CAUSE VERY
STRONG WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OVER BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT
AND THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP...CREATING MORE OF A
SHOWERY ENVIRONMENT RATHER THAN STEADY RAIN. MEANWHILE THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE NORTH
OF THE FRONT. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL THEN BE PULLED INTO
THE UPPER LOW AND END UP IN ALMOST THE SAME SPOT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED HEADING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LOOKING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
A BIT...BUT SURFACE SYSTEMS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE TREND HEADING INTO THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7
PERIOD IS FOR THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GULF. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
IN THE ULTIMATE DESTINATION OF THIS LOW SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BECOMES LOW. BASED ON THIS GENERAL EVOLUTION EXPECT MORE PRECIP
ALONG THE GULF COAST...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AT TIMES. AT A MINIMUM CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH BECOMES MUCH BETTER DEFINED
OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WITH WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A RIDGE
WILL TRANSIT THE BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR
MEANS MORE CLOUDS AND FOG.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12