Small Craft Advisory 358, NWS Anchorage, AK

558 
FZAK51 PAFC 141423 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
620 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

UPDATED ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1011 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WEAKENS TO 1022 MB TUE MORNING 60
NM WEST OF SITKA AND THEN MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
620 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012


.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2
FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

203 
FZAK51 PAFC 142326
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1012 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 1020 MB
AS IT MOVES TO 180 NM WEST OF SITKA EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TUE AND TUE
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 14 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HRS. THE ECMWF MODEL OVERALL HANDLES THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND COMPLEX OUT WEST THE BEST AND WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

.500 MB...A COLD LOW NEAR KODIAK MOVES EAST TO OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TUE EVENING. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES

TO OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND TUESDAY. A COLD LOW OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA INTENSIFIES AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.

.SURFACE...

THE SNOWFALL OVER NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS. A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING GALES TO
THE GULF AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
PROGRESSES EAST TONIGHT TO OVER THE GULF AND CENTRAL MAINLAND BY TUE.
THE LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
BERING SEA TUE AND WEAKENS. A SECONDARY CENTER NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA TODAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CENTER PROCESS EAST.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE
MIXED AT TIMES AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT THROUGH MON.
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALSO TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS
TODAY AND MON. GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. A WEAK BARRIER JET WILL ALSO
BRING BRISK EASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF GULF TONIGHT. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY WITH THE RIDGE TUE AND WED.

BEARING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PERIODS OF GALES AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A SERIES OF LOWS
IMPACT THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD CHANGE FROM MIXED TO
GENERALLY RAIN OR SHOWERS.

FOR SW AK...MIXED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INLAND AREAS AND BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT...AND MAINLY INLAND ON MON. CONDITIONS OVER ALL WILL
STABILIZE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON AND TUE.
EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO AFFECT THE COASTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS MON AND TUE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE RAIN UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. SW AK WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL SOME SHOWERS ARRIVE ON
FRI. SE OF THE AK RANGE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION RETURN AT WEEKS END AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
REDEVELOPS ALONG THE AK RANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 155.
MARINE...GALES 120 172 175 351 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 12