Small Craft Advisory 352, NWS Anchorage, AK

292 
FZAK51 PAFC 131155
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES INTO A 1008 MB LOW SUN
AFTERNOON 150 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES TO
1004 MB SUN NIGHT 25 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND THEN
WEAKENS TO 1014 MB MON NIGHT 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT.

$$

PKZ120-140300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-140300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-140300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-140300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-140300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 20 KT
BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-140300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-140300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-140300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE 20 KT BECOMING SW
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ141-140300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAY 13 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE IS BEGINNING TO DIG TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE.
THIS IS KEEPING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH THE ALCAN BORDER AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
BERING SEA.
OVERALL THE AIR ALOFT IS UNSEASONABLY COLD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A BIG FACTOR IN THE WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN LOW IS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A STRONG TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS MORNING HAS MOVED ON SHORE
AND IS BRINGING RAIN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND SNOW
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORMAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA BY THIS EVENING.
THERE IS ALSO A SMALL LOW JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THAT IS SEEN
BEST ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TODAY. THE
BERING SEA AREA IS DOING VERY WELL BUT THERE ARE TWO FEATURES IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE FORECAST IN THE GULF
REGION. THE FIRST FEATURE IS THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK THAT WILL SCOOT
JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND AND INTO THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION BY
MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE HERE IS THE NAM HAS TIGHTER ISOBARS OVER
KODIAK ISLAND THAN DOES THE GFS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS THE STRENGTH OF
THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON KODIAK WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL
IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS ON THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK
EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
COMPLETELY WASHES OUT THIS LOW WHICH LOOKS TO BE A BAD SOLUTION. THE
GFS, ECMWF, AND UKMET ALL HAVE A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE RANGE IN PRESSURE BY 5 MB AND THE UKMET IS
OVER 100 MILES FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS IN THE
MIDDLE. OVERALL THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BLEND IN THIS AREA AND
WAS USED FOR GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE COLD AIR ALOFT HAS BROUGHT STEADY SNOWFALL
TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND A LARGE PORTION OF BRISTOL BAY TODAY. THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF INTO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
KODIAK ISLAND IS IN AN INTERESTING WEATHER SITUATION. COLD AIR IS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL TURN THE RAIN
INTO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. THE CRUCIAL FACTOR IN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
AND THE TIGHTNESS OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 3.5
INCHES OF SNOW OVER KODIAK CITY OVERNIGHT WITH THE GFS MODEL
PRODUCING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS WEAKENING THE
GRADIENT OVER KODIAK AND THE NAM HAVING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WHICH
WILL DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW. FINAL DECISION AS TO THE SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE AFTER THE 00Z SOUNDING IS
AVAILABLE FROM KODIAK.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
COOK INLET REGION. THE HOMER BLUFF IS THE AREA MOST AT RISK FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BUT THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.
THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE MAY ALSO GET A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN...WITH A
LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN COLD.
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANGE OF SMALL HAIL IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING
LEVEL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 12