Small Craft Advisory 35, NWS Anchorage, AK

823 
FZAK51 PAFC 131259
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-140300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-140300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-140300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-140300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-140300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-140300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 35 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-140300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS. SEAS 5
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-140300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-140300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST THU JAN 12 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE ALASKAN DOMAIN IS IN TRANSITION THIS
MORNING. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING SEA IS BEING
REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS RAPIDLY ERODING. A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA EN
ROUTE TO BECOMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...SUPPLYING AMPLE MOISTURE TO SOUTHCENTRAL THAT
IS BEING REFLECTED BY WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA. OUT WEST...A VERY STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
OF RUSSIA IS SENDING A HURRICANE FORCE FRONT TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT OVERALL AGREEMENT. SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
ACCELERATING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
IN THE WESTERN GULF...THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...ADVERTISED SNOW EVENT IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH
IS PROVIDING THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED. THIS HAS SO FAR KEPT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD MODERATE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS
WELL. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION. OVERALL THIS IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO THE MAT-SU VALLEY. COLD AND DRY
WITH NORTH WINDS BECOME THE PREVAILING CONDITION AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND IN ALL AREAS.

SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA...COLD AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MAINLAND ZONES TODAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE VERIFYING
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN BOTH THE DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY ZONES.
OUT WEST...THE FULL FORCE OF THE STRONG FRONT IS IMPACTING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...AND A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOST OF ALASKA SETTLES INTO A SUNNY AND
DRY...ALBEIT COLD...PATTERN BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND RUNNING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE
STRONG OUTFLOW NORTHERLY WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS
AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191
         BLIZZARD WARNING 125
         HIGH WIND WATCH 187
         SNOW ADVISORY 101 111 121 145
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155 161
MARINE...HURRICANE 175 176
         STORM 130 132 150 172 185
         GALE 120 121 127 129 138 155 170 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 126 127 128 129 130 132 138
                              140 141 150 155 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 12