Small Craft Advisory 346, NWS Anchorage, AK

156 
FZAK51 PAFC 101159
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF DILLINGHAM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THU EVENING. A 1001 MB PACIFIC
LOW 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 998 MB 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE FRI
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 11
FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.

.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
125 PM AKDT WED MAY 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DYNAMIC
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION THIS MORNING. A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR COLD BAY IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A STRONG VORT-MAX IS NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT FLOWING
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF. RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS
BEGUN TO BREAK UP SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ALTHOUGH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FORMING AS
THE SUN PROVIDES A LITTLE SURFACE HEATING. A TRAILING TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW WESTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS IS SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE BERING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION
OF CURRENT SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH INHERITED FORECAST. THUS...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE. MINOR DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
TIME FRAME AS LOW TRACKS FROM EAST PACIFIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT
SOLUTIONS ARE ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL IDEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS MORE TYPICAL DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. FORTUNATELY...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL
RAIN AT SEA LEVEL. THESE WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO MEANS
THE AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE TYPICAL WINTER-TIME AIR
MASS...SO THERE IS NO STABLE LAYER TO TRAP MOUNTAIN WAVES AND FORCE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. EVEN SO...STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST TONIGHT AND THEN INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALREADY BUILDING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL PLACES
(TURNAGAIN ARM INTO ANCHORAGE/KNIK RIVER VALLEY/COPPER RIVER VALLEY).
THIS RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR FORMATION OF A BARRIER JET...
FIRST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND
THEN FROM HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INLAND SPREADING STRONG WINDS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTAL RANGE THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS UP
INTO THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY SO WINDS WON'T BE QUITE
AS STRONG. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE WILL KEEP THE
STRONGEST WINDS FURTHER EAST.

THE STRONG VORT-MAX ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MULTITUDE OF MODERATE STRENGTH WAVES WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THESE WAVES WILL PRODUCE
A CONTINUOUS DOSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST. INLAND
AREAS WILL INITIALLY STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. HOWEVER...AS THESE WINDS WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
EXPECT MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS TO MAKE IT OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STRONG VORT-MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
CENTER CAUSING THE SURFACE LOW TO WANDER AROUND A BIT. ULTIMATELY
THOUGH THE LOW WILL HEAD INLAND AND WEAKEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH VARIABLE FLOW AND FORCING
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE A BIT OF EVERYTHING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BOTTOM LINE IS THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AREAS
OF RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE ARCTIC
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST
COASTAL REGION...GRADUALLY CHANGING PRECIP TO SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING IS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL DRAG ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT A
STEADY STREAM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. UPPER RIDGE
OVER SIBERIA WILL FLATTEN AND BROADEN OUT BRINGING BENIGN WEATHER
TO THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN BERING
LATE THIS WEAK REINFORCES THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A WEAKENING AND LIFTING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THIS TROUGH EXITS EXPECT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER MAINLAND
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING...ALSO PROVIDING A WARM-UP THERE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130.
         GALE WARNING...125 129 138 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12