Small Craft Advisory 328, NWS Anchorage, AK

458 
FZAK51 PAFC 042332
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1008 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH OF
SEWARD SAT AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. A 1001 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
220 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN STRENGTHEN
TO 996 MB AND MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E WIND 20 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E WIND 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E WIND 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1235 PM AKDT THU MAY 3 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IS JUST BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
FAST WESTERLIES DOMINATE THE FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HERE WITH
THE UPPER JET PARALLELING THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE DIPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN
THE REGION IS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WHICH IS TRACKING FROM THE
EASTERN BERING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF.
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THIS WAVE AND IS TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. STEADY SNOW IS FALLING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEAK FEATURES ARE PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY BENIGN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS AGREE ON THE BASIC SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT DISAGREE ON THE POSITIONS AND STRENGTH
OF TWO KEY SURFACE LOWS. THE FIRST LOW IS THE ONE WHICH FORMS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO DIVING UPPER LOW AND THE ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THE
SECOND IS A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ALONG THE
UPPER JET AND AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH SATURDAY AND MOVES INTO
THE GULF SUNDAY. THERE IS A TREND TOWARD STRONGER LOWS...BUT
OTHERWISE NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THEREFORE....FOR NOW WILL USE A MODEL BLEND TO GET AN AVERAGE
POSITION AND TREND TOWARD STRONGER WINDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE SHORT-WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL TRACK TO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP REMAINING DOWN OVER THE GULF AND KODIAK
ISLAND. THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
STILL VERY COLD. THEREFORE...THE LITTLE BIT OF SUN THAT DOES POKE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH HEATING TO TRIGGER A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE GULF WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PROVIDING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INLAND. EVEN WITH THE MORE FOCUSED LIFT FROM THIS
TROUGH STILL EXPECT SOME BREAKS OF SUN EACH DAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF SUNDAY BRINGING LOTS OF WIND AND RAIN TO THE GULF
COAST...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THIS ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE SYSTEM ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL EXIT TO THE GULF TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL THEN USHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SINCE THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF IS QUITE WEAK
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT.
THIS MEANS WINDS WILL BE A LOT LESS THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT
WITH THIS TYPE OF COLD ADVECTION. GUSTY NORTHERLIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER LOW BOTTOMS OUT ON SATURDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AND STEADIER PRECIP
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE SAME EVOLUTION
IN LARGE SCALE FLOW NEXT WEEK BUT DO NOT AGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
WILL KICK EASTWARD INTO CANADA BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING. MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER
LEVEL JET AND PRIMARY STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE GULF.
STEADY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS THE NORM FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS/SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL ALL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY ZONE 152 KUSKOKWIM RIVER NEAR SLEETMUTE.
         FLOOD WATCH ZONE 152 KUSKOKWIM RIVER NEAR RED DEVIL.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 12