Small Craft Advisory 322, NWS Anchorage, AK

557 
FZAK52 PAFC 021433 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
635 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

UPDATED ZONE 176

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEAK WEATHER FRONT MOVES ONSHORE IN KUSKOKWIM BAY LATE THIS
MORNING. A 1012 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES TO NEAR
CAPE NEWENHAM THU MORNING AT 1007 MB AND THEN CONTINUES ONSHORE.

$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
635 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT TUE MAY 1 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE SHORT-TERM.  UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGED TO REMAIN IN THE NW
THROUGH THU MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING REACHING THE CENTRAL BERING LATE SAT MORNING. SURFACE LOW IN
THE GULF REMAINS INTACT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
MODELS ALSO GENERATING A LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING THU MORNING AND
THEN MOVE THIS LOW ONSHORE SOUTH OF BETHEL AND THEN TOWARDS COOK
INLET ON FRI.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL LOW AS GENERATED SOME COOLER
TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. PRECIP HAS BEEN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO FAR TODAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN THE ALASKA RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHED SOUTH ALLOWING SEVERAL
WEAK LOWS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SNOW NORTH OF THE AL CHAIN. OTHER WISE CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST
OF THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ONSHORE THIS MORNING SHOULD
SLIDE NORTH AND EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW TO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. LOOKS AS IF SERIES OF WEAK LOWS
THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AND HIGH PROB OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRI.

SOUTHCENTRAL...EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATER THIS EVENING OVER SUSITNA
BASIN AND COOK INLET BUT HIGH PROB OF SNOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
KODIAK TO REMAIN DRY BUT WINDY UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TO MID 20S AND HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...IF THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED MOVE DOWN INTO THE
BERING THEN CAN EXPECT CLOUDS AND HIGH PROB OF PRECIP IN THE EASTERN
BERING AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.  SOME DOUBT TO WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE GULF ON SAT AND SUN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLD ADV KUSKO AT SLEETMUTE
MARINE...GALES 121 129 130 132 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAY 12