Small Craft Advisory 313, NWS Anchorage, AK

132 
FZAK51 PAFC 292355
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301500-
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 170 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT MON AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN TO 1001 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-301500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. STRONGER WIND AND HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-301500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-301500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 


$$

PKZ140-301500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

731 
FZAK51 PAFC 301159
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 998 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF CAPE YAKATAGA WILL
DISSIPATE 120 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT TUE NIGHT. A 1001 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 30 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN APR 29 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NAM PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM
FOR ITS SUPERIOR HANDLING OF COASTAL EFFECTS...MOST ESPECIALLY SEA
BREEZES...GAP FLOWS...AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST BARRIER JET. HPC MID
AND LONG TERM GUIDANCE MORE INFLUENCED BY GFS THAN BY EC. EC SIMILAR
TO NAM IN SHORT TERM...BUT BECOMES OVERLY AGRESSIVE WITH THE
INTENSITY OF THE LOW IN GULF BEYOND 120 HOURS.

.UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR KODIAK ISLAND MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS ULTIMATELY ABSORBED INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH
BUILDING OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHLE...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS OVER BOTH WESTERN CANADA AND THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRIMARY LOW CENTER HAS A STRENGTH OF ABOUT 995 MB AND IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. IT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF MON MORNING AT 1000 MB AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND THIS
MORNING BUT IS RAPIDLY DETIORATING IN THE PROCESS. WETTING RAINS WILL
BE LIMITED TO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MAIN EFFECT ON
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

WEAK THERMAL TROUGH PERISTS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. PERIODS OF SUN TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE INTERSPERESED WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TODAY. THE SHORT WAVE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TODAY IN
THE PRIBILOFS...EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY MIDDAY IN THESE AREA...BUT
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN FLATTENS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MARINE LAYER IS
ESPECIALLY THICK IN THIS AREA. FEW HIGH CLOUDS SO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
COULD PEAK THROUGH.

.OUTLOOK...

INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPS...CLOUDIER SKIES...AND INREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS BOTH
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ALL THIS IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS VICNITY ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE.

OUT WEST...STRATUS AND FOG REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING
WILL SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB APR 12