Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

293 
FZAK52 PAFC 102348
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 150 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL DRIFT TOWARD 
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING. A STRONG 
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN THU MORNING 
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...W OF DUTCH HARBOR...NW WIND 25 KT. E OF DUTCH HARBOR...NW 
WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING MUCH
OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH VERY COLD BUT PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY. THIS IS
IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM ALREADY BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SNOW AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AND WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHING BACK TO THE SUBTROPICS.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES PUTS THE REGION AT OVER 200 PERCENT AVERAGE
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY AND
GOOD CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN WHICH IS ADDING CONFIDENCE TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST. OVERALL...THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS AND THE TYPICAL
UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN RANGES OVER THE INTERIOR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE MAY BRING WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE
LIGHT SNOW BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY HEAVY AT TIMES THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL FETCH STREAMING NORTHWARD. MANY PLACES
WILL START OFF COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WE ARE EXPECTING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR MANY COMMUNITIES AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL SEE VERY HIGH QPF FROM THIS EVENT...SO WILL
ADVERTISE AT LEAST A FOOT OF SNOW STORM TOTAL FOR MANY AREAS AT OR
NEAR SEA LEVEL. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE
SNOW...POSSIBLY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEK ADDING TO THE
ASTRONOMICAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE REGION.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUGACH RANGE WILL ALSO BRING
THE FIRST HIGH WIND EVENT TO TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE ANCHORAGE SINCE DECEMBER 20TH. THIS EVENT WILL BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE DECEMBER WIND EVENTS SINCE COLD AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL REACH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM BUT WILL NOT REACH THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE RECENT SNOWFALL IN ANCHORAGE COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING SNOW WHERE THE WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SINCE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE FALLING...VISIBILITY WILL ONLY
BE REDUCED TO SNOW BEING PICKED UP AND BLOWN AROUND. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE BLOWING SNOW AND HOW POOR
THE CONDITIONS WILL BE...SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES RELATED TO THE BLOWING SNOW...ONLY MENTIONING
THE POSSIBILITY IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST.

WE WILL BE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SNOW FOR ANCHORAGE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY PROMISING SETUP
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. STILL QUITE A WAY OUT SO TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE ACCUMULATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL STORM.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW IS SPREADING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AND
INTERIOR REGIONS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. A DEFORMATION BAND WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...OUT WEST THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LAST
LONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHERE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FOCUS OVER THIS AREA. EVENTUALLY...THE LOW DIGS SOUTH
AND EAST BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY PRECIPITATION ALLOWING FOR A
MORE TYPICAL COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWER PATTERN TO PREVAIL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA MID WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO BE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE THAT COULD BE IN THIS VICINITY FOR AN
EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131 135 155 161 187
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 125 130 132 140 150 172
         GALE WARNING...129 138 141 155 160 165 171 171 175 179 180
                        171 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...130 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JAN 12