Small Craft Advisory 287, NWS Anchorage, AK

758 
FZAK52 PAFC 171155
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180300-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1002 MB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ150-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-180300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-180300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-180300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-180300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 17 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKDT MON APR 16 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH A CLOSED LOW SPINNING IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE FAR WEST BERING SEA.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS ALSO LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO THE YUKON AND NORTHERN ALASKA. UPPER LEVEL WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKERS...PRIMARILY PRODUCING RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST.
CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TO THE BERING
SEA WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS INLAND.

A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING STORM ALONG THE
UPPER JET IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO CURVE
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON UP THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH
TRACK OF DEVELOPING NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF.
ELSEWHERE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WITH MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH SOUTH
OF THE GULF AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY.
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH WILL
HELP DRY OUT THE NORTH GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN OR SHOWERS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO A POSITION NOT TOO FAR FROM
THE CURRENT LOW.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN OUT WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND LOWERS
EXPECT MORE FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. A SHORT-WAVE MOVING OVER
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK/ALASKA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MAJOR LOW
DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ENTIRE GULF COAST TO DRY OUT. MODELS THEN AGREE ON
A PATTERN CHANGE...ALTHOUGH AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THE DETAILS OF
SPECIFIC STORMS ARE VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE STORM NEAR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING
PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM WAVES. MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH DROPPING
OUT OF RUSSIA AND INTERACTING WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PHASE. RATHER THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TAP INTO ENERGY AND MOISTURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MAJOR
PACIFIC STORM TRACKING TO THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS NEXT WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IS NOT QUITE AS CLEAR CUT. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF WEAK FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 12