Small Craft Advisory 278, NWS Anchorage, AK

377 
FZAK52 PAFC 141159
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150300-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A 971 MB LOW 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL
MOVE TO 280 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS 
TO 983 MB. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND WEAKEN TO 985 MB.

$$

PKZ150-150300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-150300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-150300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-150300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-150300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-150300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-150300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUST TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-150300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-150300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-150300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-150300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-150300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND BERING SEA. UNDER THIS BROAD CIRCULATION ARE SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW. THE JET THAT IS SUPPORTING
THIS DEVELOPMENT RESIDES WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC NEAR THE 40N PARALLEL. OVER ALASKA...WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS
LEADING TO MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER WITH A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTION IS A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND THE NAM. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO THE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE 12Z GFS
WANTS TO RAPIDLY RESOLVE THE MULTIPLE WAVES INTO A SINGLE LOW WHILE
THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A MUCH MORE REALISTIC MULTI-CENTERED LOW
COMPLEX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS NUDGE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT AS
ONE OF THE WAVES NEARS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z
ANCHORAGE SOUNDING RESULTED IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND A
BIT OF VIRGA. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE DRY BELOW 5000 FEET SO NO SNOW
OR RAIN MADE IT TO THE SURFACE DESPITE THE RADAR LIGHTING UP EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AT LEAST...SO A STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL. THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OVER NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC COMPLEX LOW.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH
RAIN AND SNOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE ENERGY REMAINS WELL SOUTH.

.SOUTHWEST...STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS CURRENTLY
DISSIPATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE MOST LIKELY REGION
TO SEE FOG TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE
APPROACHING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SHOULD TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ENOUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY TO MITIGATE THE CHANCES OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...VERY BENIGN WEATHER OUT WEST WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRATUS AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

THE ONE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL INCLUDE BUMPING UP THE
WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO STORM FORCE. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS DIRECTION SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW ADDING TO OUR
CONFIDENCE IN MINIMUM STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 150 155
         GALE 120 130 132 138 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB APR 12