Small Craft Advisory 277, NWS Anchorage, AK

389 
FZAK51 PAFC 132321
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A 
PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY AT 974
MB SAT MORNING...THEN MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS TO 983 MB.
$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 30 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT EXCEPT 9 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF THE STATE
WHILE A TROF DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. TO THE WEST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING
AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AS THIS TROF CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH...A
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS LOW WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS OUR DOMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER UNDER THE CURRENT UPPER
PATTERN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE. A COMPARISON
OF THE MSLP AGAINST THE 18Z INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A SLIGHT
PREFERENCE TO THE NAM/ECMWF DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THE MINOR DIFFERENCES WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST AS ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE NAM WAS PREFERRED AND THEN
A GRADUAL BLEND TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WAS USED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING OVER MOST OF THE STATE. AN EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
RESULT IN INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE
AND COLD AIR ALOFT. BESIDES THE STRAY SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA AND
TALKEETNA RANGES...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE GULF. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH
RAIN OVER KODIAK AND ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST...SUNNY SKIES ALSO PREVAILING OUT WEST EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG MAINLY ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HELP USHER IN THE WARMER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE
INTERIOR...UNTIL THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT. PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS MUCH
OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...VERY BENIGN WEATHER OUT WEST WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRATUS AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 170
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB APR 12