Small Craft Advisory 274, NWS Anchorage, AK

923 
FZAK51 PAFC 122332
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131500-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A 
PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO AROUND 380 NM SOUTH OF AKHIOK AT 973 MB 
SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-131500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-131500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-131500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT . SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-131500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-131500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-131500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-131500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-131500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-131500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR OF
THE STATE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND MOVE INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE JET STREAM IS RUNNING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND IS STRENGTHENING A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF ATTU. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF THIS WEEKEND. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND MERGE WITH THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE A STRONG HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WEATHER TO THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH IT
IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING VERY WELL. USING THE NAM FOR
DETAIL IN THE EAST. A NAM/GFS BLEND WAS USED FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.
TOWARD THE WEEKEND THE LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
ELONGATE AND DEVELOP A SECOND CENTER. THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH SHOW
THIS FEATURE BUT THE GFS IS CONSOLIDATING THE ENERGY INTO A SINGLE
CENTER WHICH IT OFTEN DOES AND THIS IS NOT LIKELY. THEREFORE THE
ECMWF IS PREFERRED IN THE LONGER TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE FIRST SHORT WAVE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE. THE NEXT WAVE ALSO APPEARS TO BE JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND THE BIGGEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE THE NORTH GULF COAST FRIDAY.
A DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH
THE UNIMAK PASS AREA. THIS IS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
FROM DUTCH HARBOR THROUGH COLD BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING BOTH PLACES SO THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AS WE ENTER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE LARGE LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH SNOW IN AREAS WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY SPRAY 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 12