Small Craft Advisory 271, NWS Anchorage, AK

041 
FZAK51 PAFC 112318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 20 KT NEAR THE BARREN 
ISLANDS IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 11 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 10 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESCENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN RUSSIA. THIS
PATTERN IS KEEPING THE JET STREAM RUNNING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH A POTENT JET STREAK IS FEEDING THE LARGE SURFACE LOW
THAT IS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS SURFACE LOW IS THE MAIN
WEATHER MAKING FEATURE OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE.
ON THE SMALLER SCALE THERE IS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES OVER THE
PANHANDLE THAT ARE MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THESE FEATURES ARE SEEN BEST ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH CONSISTENT
SOLUTIONS BETWEEN MODELS AND GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL. THE
NAM WAS USED FOR DETAILS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVER THE MAINLAND AREAS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY AND IT IS BRINGING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
FROM KODIAK ISLAND WESTWARD TO DUTCH HARBOR AND NORTHWARD TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
THE SHORT WAVES MOVING TOWARD THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL LIKELY NOT
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE HAVE ONLY BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE PANHANDLE AREA. HOWEVER THE ARE PAVING THE WAY FOR A
FEW MORE WAVES ON THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA IF ENOUGH MOISTURE BECOMES AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA WILL HOLD FIRM AS A
MODERATE LOW DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THU AND THEN
MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME
WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...AS
WELL AS RAIN AND A CHANCE OF SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
MOST PART WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 12