Small Craft Advisory 263, NWS Anchorage, AK

502 
FZAK52 PAFC 082327
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST MON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY SUN NIGHT. A 1001 MB LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA AT
985 MB MON AFTERNOON AND TO 360 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AT 987 MB TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
60 KT ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND
RAIN.  
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. E OF PORT MOLLER...GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT APR 7 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH THE NAM IS MOVING THE LOW MOVE THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED MODEL
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA IS SPREADING AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS THE THE KENAI PENINSULA,
SUSITNA VALLEY, MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE. AREAS OF RAIN AND
SNOW FELL OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST HAD SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE BETHEL
AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BERING SEA. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND LARGE MODERATE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AND THE GULF SUNDAY THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTH BERING SUNDAY AND INTO THE
RUSSIA FAR EAST MONDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AREAS OF SNOW OVER WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND SPREAD TO REST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEAK
WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MORE RAIN, SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH BECOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY THEN
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BRING RAIN, SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AND KEEP
MOST OF THE WEATHER OUT OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER
KODIAK ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE STORM SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TURN EAST TUESDAY THEN SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
WILL ONLY AFFECT THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
MARINE...GALE 150 170 172 175 176 185 179
         STORM 155 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 12