Small Craft Advisory 260, NWS Anchorage, AK

806 
FZAK51 PAFC 061136
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF SAT.

$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BARREN ISLANDS W...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. ELSEWHERE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10
KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...VARIABLE
WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FOOT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

613 
FZAK51 PAFC 062349
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SAT.
$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BARREN
ISLANDS.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FOOT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1
FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 6 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
205 PM AKDT THU APR 5 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAD A LARGE
BROAD TROUGH OVERT HE NORTHERN PART OF THE BERING SEA WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER.
THE JET STREAM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS HEADING
DUE WEST TO EAST UNTIL IT IS STEERED SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
HAVE ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE COMPLEX PATTERN IN THE BEING
SEA. ONE DIFFERENCE THAT IS SMALLER BUT IMPORTANT LIES BETWEEN THE
NAM AND THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE COOK
INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
BRINGING IN COLDER AIR QUICKER TONIGHT AND THE GFS IS DELAYING IT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS IN THESE
AREA...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE GFS IS A BETTER REPRESENTATION WITH
THE WARM AIR REMAINING IN THE AREA AT LITTLE BIT LONGER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MOST CHALLENGING AREA TO CALL THE WEATHER
ON FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
THERE HAVE BEEN CHINOOK WINDS AND GAP WINDS ALONG THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE STILL ADVECTING IN WARM AIR AND AS LONG AS THEY ARE AROUND
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS NOT IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL AS RAIN.
THERE IS ALSO COLDER AIR TO THE WEST THAT WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FAST
ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
STOPS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AIR WILL BE AROUND LONG
ENOUGH THAT AS THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS DIMINISH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL BE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. TOWARD MORNING IT MAY TURN TO SNOW A GIVE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
BUT NOTHING MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE COLD AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA
AND THE DOWNSLOPE WILL HAVE ENDED WITH A WEAK SURFACE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE ANCHORAGE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH ALASKA PENINSULA THERE WILL BE
SOME PERIODS OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS BOTH WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SEVERELY RESTRICT
VISIBILITY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG STORM IN THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A NEW LOW
SKIRTS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SECOND LOW WILL GET
DEFLECTED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
155 PM AKDT THU APR 5 2012

AKZ101-060800-

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN IN ANCHORAGE...

AFTER NEARLY A MONTH OF NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA
THERE IS SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
START LATE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT RAIN AND REMAIN LIGHT RAIN MOST OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW TOWARD MORNING. SNOW SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TOTAL IN
THE ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCH RANGE.

THE SECOND WAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SNOW THE ENTIRE TIME. AT THIS TIME
WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY WHICH RESULTS IN TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE. THE CURRENT SEASONAL TOTAL
IS 3.2 INCHES SHORT OF THE ALL TIME RECORD. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US
SHY OF THE RECORD AS THE LOCATION OF RECORD IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
ANCHORAGE AREA FRIDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF TOMORROW AND THE RECORD WOULD LIKELY BE
BROKEN.