Small Craft Advisory 254, NWS Anchorage, AK

398 
FZAK51 PAFC 041615 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
815 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

CORRECTED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT GUSTING 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND BY NOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING 
E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

170 
FZAK51 PAFC 042349
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND
BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN 
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 4 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A RIDGE
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THAT IS KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT
STRETCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS FEEDING A STRONG LOW
THAT IS BETWEEN ADAK AND ATKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING FINE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT ARE RAPIDLY DIVERGING IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE
STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT ISSUE IS THE WAY THE LOW
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SPLITS ITS ENERGY. THE ECMWF IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION OF THE BUNCH AND HAS BEEN THE MAIN ONE USED
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES. THE ECMWF DROPS THE MAIN LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVES THAT ONE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH TRY TO
MEAN OUT THE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND HAVE LARGE SWINGS IN THE
POSITION OF THE SECONDARY LOW AS A RESULT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CLEAR SKIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND
KODIAK ISLAND UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT PUSHES FARTHER EAST
THE BIG ACTION REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS THE LARGE LOW MOVES THROUGH THOSE AREAS. THE LOW HAS
CAUSED BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND FOR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. ADAK HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTING 55 TO 60 MPH MOST OF THE DAY.

WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW MOVING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM ATKA EASTWARD
WILL NOT SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
INLAND. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE BERING PUSHING UP AGAINST THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY SATURDAY. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187 195.
MARINE...GALE 170 171 175.
         STORM 172 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 12