Small Craft Advisory 250, NWS Anchorage, AK

487 
FZAK52 PAFC 032345
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF
COLD BAY AT 995 MB WED AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF COLD BAY WED AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 75 NM SOUTHWEST
OF NOME AT 997 MB THU AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WED NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING THU. 

$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND
30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT
BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING
NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN THE EAST INITIALIZED WELL AND HAE
SIMILAR AND REASONABLE FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM WILL BE USED THIS FORECAST CYCLE IN ORDER TO
CAPTURE OUTFLOW WINDS. IN THE WEST...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND WILL USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXITING GRIDS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500 MB...A SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
KENAI PEN THIS MORNING. THE WAVE HAS SINCE MOVED ACROSS EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND KICKED OFF SNOW
SHOWERS. FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
THE SUBSIDENCE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE THIS MORNING. A
WEAK RIDGE WAS EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN RUSSIA...CENTRAL BERING SEA...THEN SW TO SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SET UP BROAD SW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SURFACE...
A OLD CUT-OFF CENTER SE OF THE GULF WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
EVIDENT OVER THE MAINLAND. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EVIDENT BY THE PRESENCE OF OPEN AND CLOSED CELL CU.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUE. AREAS OF FOG OVER COOK INLET AND THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. BRISK AND GUSTY
OUT-FLOW/GAP WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI PEN AND NORTH GULF SHOULD
INTENSIFY SOME TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUE AFTERNOON. BROAD SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE WESTERN GULF
TUE NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WED. GAP
FLOWS WILL ALSO INCREASING ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...NORTH
KENAI...AND MAT VALLEY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT.

SOUTHWEST...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDING
MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY. A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WEAK SW FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW LATE
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN
OVER THE AK PEN AND SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST.

ALEUTIANS/EASTERN BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST TUE/WED AND WEAKEN AS A TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND MOVES TO NEAR THE
SW COAST WED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
PRIBILOFS LATE TUE/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES.
BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...EAST OF
SHEMYA...ARE LIKELY TUE AS THE LOW AND THE BENT BACK OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVE INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE BERING
PUSHING UP AGAINST THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY SATURDAY. EXPECT RAIN AND
SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIANS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 155.
MARINE...STORMS 172 175.
         GALES 130 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC APR 12