Small Craft Advisory 246, NWS Anchorage, AK

254 
FZAK51 PAFC 021142
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030300-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-030300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-030300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-030300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NW 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-030300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING W 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-030300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-030300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-030300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-030300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT SW 10 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-030300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING GOOD JOB THIS MORNING OUT THROUGH MID WEEK
ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THE EC/NAM/GFS NOW ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
DISCREPANCIES BEYOND THAT BUT THE MODELS STAY IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING EXTENDS BACK OVER EASTERN RUSSIAN
WITH A DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN IT EXTENDS OVER THE
THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. AT
THE SURFACE THE OLD LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTH WHILE A DEEP 960S MB PACIFIC LOW IS
TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. OUT
WEST WEAK RIDGING CONTINUE DRIFTING TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. A STRONG FRONT FROM AN ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA IS CROSSING THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
EASTERLY WAVES ARE STILL BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
COPPER RIVER ACROSS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE LATER TODAY AS THE
WAVE EXITS THE AREA. A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES OUT OF WESTERN CANADA TO
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN/NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY AND PROBABLY WILL
BRING RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SOUTHWEST...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS. MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE A PROBLEM MAINLY ALONG
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TODAY.

ALEUTIANS/BERING...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BERING RESULTING IN COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOFS
DOWN ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SPREADING EASTWARD TODAY MIXING WITH SNOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY MID WEEK AN UPPER BERING RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND
BUILDS IN OVER MAINLAND TROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 12