Small Craft Advisory 238, NWS Anchorage, AK

640 
FZAK51 PAFC 291150
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 967 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WEAKENS TO 972 MB THU NIGHT 250
NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO 987 MB
FRI NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 350 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
$$

PKZ120-300300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-300300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-300300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE 30 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-300300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-300300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

301 
FZAK51 PAFC 292254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 971 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WEAKENS TO 981 MB AS IT MOVES
TO 270 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN TO 993 MB AS IT DRIFTS TO 400 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-301500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-301500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-301500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-301500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-301500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-301500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 29 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT WED MAR 28 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF
ALASKA KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THE ZONAL FLOW IS SENDING WAVE AFTER WAVE TOWARD THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. MEANWHILE UP NORTH...A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA EXTENDING FROM CANADA.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR KODIAK AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. SOUTHEASTERLY WAVES FLOWING AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH ARE
LINING UP FROM THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AK.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE
STRONGEST OF THE SHORTWAVES IS HEADING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING PRECIP TO GET ENHANCED AS THIS APPROACHES.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. THE EXCEPTION
IS THE 12Z NAM WHICH AGAIN HAS INITIALIZED VERY POORLY OFF OF THE 18Z
SATELLITE AND IS A CLEAR OUTLIER VS THE OTHER OPTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
12Z SOUNDING OVER ANCHORAGE SHOWS THE WARM-UP IS UNDERWAY WITH 925
MB TEMPS 7 DEG CELCIUS WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF CLEARING DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT COULD GIVE US A PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON.
IF THIS HAPPENS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY JUMP UP INTO THE MID 40S
VERY QUICKLY.

BESIDES THE CHALLENGES OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES...A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC FILLS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS BACK IN
OVER THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF THE PARENT LOW WILL STILL REMAIN AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INCREASES FROM THE
970S TO THE 990S WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION. THIS WILL ALLOW
A FEW MORE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE SOUTHCENTRAL BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE COAST AND INCREASED CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
INLAND. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE INTERIOR LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE MORE POTENT WAVES MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MANY AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC TO
THE DECAYING LOW IN THE BERING IS SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE CHALLENGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INCLUDES
THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR ALOFT LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THE KODIAK ISLAND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN EXISTS BRIEFLY THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...IF THIS HAPPENS WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A
FEW HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SO NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MARGINAL TO VFR BY
FRIDAY WITH LOCAL AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING. AS SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN BERING LOW WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ALONG WITH THE
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF OUR
DOMAIN. IT IS NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT THE NEXT SURGE OF
WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW BRINGS GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 170 172 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 12