Small Craft Advisory 228, NWS Anchorage, AK

008 
FZAK52 PAFC 261154
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT GEORGE WILL MOVE TO 140 NM
NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY AT 980 MB LATE THIS EVENING...THEN DRIFT NEAR
SAINT PAUL AT 975 MB EARLY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SW 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT NEAR THE WESTERN CAPES.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-270300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-270300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
 

$$

PKZ170-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT DURING THE MORNING. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-270300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-270300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-270300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 26 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1140 AM AKDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WHICH
IS PRODUCING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THERE
IS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH
WILL CAUSE STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM MAINLAND ALASKA. A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS
A STRONG LOW (ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 970 MB) TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN THEY WERE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CAME THROUGH A FEW DAYS
AGO. IT IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT DON'T EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE AS MUCH OF A
PROBLEM.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS LED TO
SOME STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS AS SEEN IN THE BETHEL AND KING
SALMON SOUNDINGS. THUS AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED MOST NOTABLY ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO.

A LOOK AT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SHOWS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY MOVING EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE USE OF THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT
MODEL AND IS PREFERRED. CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORT-WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF. AS ENERGY FROM THE
BERING STORM DIVES DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TONIGHT AND
MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY...SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FAIRLY STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOWNSLOPE OUT THE USUAL AREAS...SO THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE CLOUD COVER. PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK
ALONG THE COAST KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM AND CHANGE PRECIP TO MOSTLY RAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STRONG STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE STORM FROM
REACHING SOUTHWEST ALASKA. DO EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND A
LITTLE BIT OF WIND TO REACH THE COAST. THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVES
INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO SPREAD MOISTURE OVER TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY AND THEN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD
AND HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE DRYING ON THE WEST SIDE OF MOUNTAINS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BERING SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE TO PACK A PUNCH WITH HIGH END GALES ON THE FRONT SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AND STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC LEAVING A WEAK REMNANT LOW
IN THE BERING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER SOUTH PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN
BEHIND THIS SECOND SYSTEM AND RESUME A SNOW SHOWER REGIME ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LATE NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BECOMING EVEN
MORE AMPLIFIED AND A RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
PACIFIC SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN CHANGE BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS WITHIN IT.
UNTIL THIS PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING MAINLAND
ALASKA ON THE DRY SIDE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...172 175.
         GALE WARNING...155 165 170 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 12