Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

567 
FZAK52 PAFC 080042
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 MB LOW 90 NM WEST NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO
120 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM BY EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN ONSHORE
THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUN EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES TO 325 NM
WEST SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1002 MB EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO 60 NM SOUTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND BY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
TRACK TO 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK AT 968 MB BY MON MORNING AND
MOVE TO 220 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI AT 972 BY MON EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 13
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-081500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-081500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-081500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...BERING SIDE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-081500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-081500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-081500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

635 
FZAK52 PAFC 081238
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
MEKORYUK MON MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON MORNING THROUGH MON EVENING. A 985 MB LOW
WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR PORT MOLLER MON EVENING AND MOVE
ASHORE BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...POLAR VORTEX OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE
ELONGATED FROM JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY BACK INTO EASTERN RUSSIA.
THIS SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE NEXT
FEW SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE JET STREAM IS STRONG ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC OFF THE ASIAN COAST
TO 160W. THIS IS WHY THE LOWS ARE TURNING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE RIDING ALONG THIS JET AND INTO THE
GULF. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS IS ROTATING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL THIS
MORNING WITH SNOW TO FINALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE NEXT WAVE TO CURVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE EFFECTS OF THIS WAVE HAS DEVELOPED A 964 MB
LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ALASKA...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EFFECT HAS BEEN THE ISSUANCE OF
BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA STARTING NOW NEAR COLD BAY
AND INCREASING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
LAST NIGHTS LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE WINDS WERE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR VALDEZ TODAY. OVER THE
BERING IN OPEN WATER...THE COLD AIR ALOFT IS CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED HEAVILY IN THESE SHOWERS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS WERE NOT TOO BAD IN CONSENSUS OF MOVING
THE LOW IN THE GULF INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WERE IN THE SAME
VICINITY FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THE CURRENT NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL ROTATE INTO THE GULF WITH THE 12Z EC AND 18Z GFS BEING THE
DEEPEST NOW. THIS WILL MEAN A MODERATE BARRIER JET IN THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AREA AND SOME SNOW FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND KODIAK TONIGHT. THE BIGGER DISCUSSION ON MODEL CONSENSUS
WAS WITH THE NEXT LOW ON MONDAY REACHING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE 12Z
GFS WAS MUCH FASTER THAN THE 06Z ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE
18Z RUN THOUGH HAS SLOWED THIS FEATURE DOWN NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MOVE IN OVER THE GULF. WE EXPECT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO REACH KODIAK BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW WRAP UP EAST OF THEM AND INTO THE SOUND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...A MODERATE BARRIER JET CAN BE
EXPECTED. AN 850 MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY BEFORE THE LOW SETTLES INTO THE SOUND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE INLAND AREAS WITH NORTH GULF COAST
STATIONS RECEIVING PRECIP LATER TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN ALASKA...THE GRADIENT WILL SHARPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR STRONG WESTERLY GAP FLOWS THROUGH THE COOK INLET AND KENAI
PENINSULA REGIONS BY SUNDAY. THE MAIN FACTOR WILL BE WHETHER
PRECIPITATION IS STILL PRESENT AND MAY WARRANT A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL IT GETS MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY TO
DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR HOMER OR WHITTIER
AND PORTAGE SUNDAY BEFORE THE SNOW SHUTS OFF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE CHAIN. WITH PERSISTENT SNOWFALL ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
DEVELOPING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN NEAR COLD BAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AKPEN AREA OF BRISTOL BAY THIS
EVENING. INLAND...THE LOW MOVING TOWARD KODIAK THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE COLD
CONDITIONS TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVELS TONIGHT. THE
COLDEST AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE YK DELTA AND WARNING LEVELS
WILL BE EXPERIENCED THERE LATER TONIGHT. THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
FOR WIND CHILL WILL DIMINISH AS THE WINDS DROP OFF AGAIN BY TOMORROW
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN ON
MONDAY THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A BIT WITH THE NEXT
LOW. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BERING TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLD AIR AS WELL...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATER AREAS. THE LOW ON MONDAY
WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN ALL SNOW. DEFINITELY WILL EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
THIS LOW ON MONDAY. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD
ARRIVE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CHANGE
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN FOR THE STORM TRACK TO BE FARTHER WEST.
SO...THE NEXT LOW ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY RATHER THAN
THE GULF. THIS COULD MEAN A WIND EVENT ONCE AGAIN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA WITH TEMPERATURE BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE MAINLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO
COLDER AIR OVER THE MAINLAND. THE NEXT LOW WILL BE EVEN FARTHER WEST
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN BERING WITH A FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING BY FRIDAY. THE TIMING AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IS STILL UP
FOR DEBATE. HOWEVER...THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT THE STORM TRACK WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 161 171 181.
         WIND CHILL WARNING 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 140 150 155 165 170 171.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 132 138 140 141
                                        160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JN JAN 12