Small Craft Advisory 212, NWS Anchorage, AK

316 
FZAK52 PAFC 201533 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
730 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

UPDATED AREAS 150 AND 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210300-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE EVENING
AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN. A 991 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE NIGHT
WILL MOVE TO 240 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 986 MB WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
730 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
730 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-210300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ180-210300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.

.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 40 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 40 KT
BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-210300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

780 
FZAK52 PAFC 202331
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN. A 990 MB LOW 275 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
WED AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A 988 MB LOW 375 NM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA WED EVENING WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK AT
968 MB THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...GUSTING TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT...GUSTING TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...GUSTING TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE EVENING.  
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT 
BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY 
IN THE EVENING.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF 
SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
BERING SIDE...SEAS 6 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOMING E 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING 
TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING 
SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 40 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 40 KT
BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KT. W OF SAINT 
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. W OF 
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE SNAPSHOT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY HAS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WITH
A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF THAT IS
HEADING TOWARD THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GULF WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
COMPLEX LOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
IN THE WEST THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND
MOVING EASTWARD AS A STRONG FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MAJOR
FEATURES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES TO ADDRESS PAST THAT. IN THE EAST THE MODELS ALL SHOW A
COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, BUT AS IT OFTEN THE CASE WITH SUCH
A FEATURE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL
CENTERS WILL DEVELOP AND HOW THEY WILL MOVE. THIS WILL NOT CREATE TOO
BIG OF A PROBLEM OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS
OF THE GULF.
IN THE WESTERN BERING THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP A
MODERATE CLOSED CENTER LOW THAT MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THAT AREA. THE UKMET HAS THIS LOW BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN
THE GFS OR NAM. THE ECMWF ONLY HAS AN OPEN WAVE FOR THIS FEATURE. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN BUT IS NUDGING ITS
OPEN WAVE TO MATCH THE PHASE THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING. THE LOW ON
THE UKMET IS NEW. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A
CLOSED LOW AS THE NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW BUT THE STRENGTH WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO THE UKMET STRENGTH. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE ECMWF STARTS
TO STRENGTHEN THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...A WEAK LOW IS MOVING THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA
OTHER THAN THIS WAVE THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THE
NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.
SOUTHWEST...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND AK PENINSULA...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
THE ICE PACK ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH, THE BERING SEA SOUTH OF THE ICE
EDGE REMAINS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND BRIEF BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS. THE DURATION OF ANY
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND EXTEND
OUT INTO THE GULF FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY A
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE WEST PUSHING THE
TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND
USHER IN MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 165 170 175 176 185.
         HEAVY SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140 150 155 170 171.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 12