Small Craft Advisory 193, NWS Anchorage, AK

012 
FZAK51 PAFC 122351
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131500-
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF SEWARD THIS EVENING AND
STRENGTHEN TO 981 MB 30 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS WEST WED MORNING. A 976 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
100 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WED AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-131500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-131500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-131500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-131500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING E 10 KT TOWARD EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-131500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING T 4 FT TOWARD MORNING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. EAST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-131500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
$$

PKZ138-131500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-131500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT N 10 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-131500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 12 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SUN MAR 11 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE BIGGEST MODEL ISSUE MAY BE IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT IS JUST SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND. ALL OF THE MODELS RESOLVE THE MAIN LOW BUT THEY ALL
MISSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY ONE ON ITS HEELS. THE NAM IS
PROBABLY THE CLOSEST AS IT DOES SHOW A TROUGH IN THE AREA OF THE LOW.

IN THE WEST...MODELS ADEQUATELY CAPTURE THE MAIN PICTURE. THE PACIFIC
LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS SHEMYA MON MORNING AT PEAK INTENSITY...THEN
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NIKOLSKI LATE MON NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO
SLOW...LAGGING A RESIDUAL LOW AROUND UNALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE 180 KT UPPER JET SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM CLIPS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ADVANCES SOUTHEAST BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. WE
TEND TO BELIEVE THE ECMWF WHICH SHEARS OUT THE LOBE BY DRAGGING THE
LION'S SHARE OF ENERGY AWAY FROM THE AOR. OUTSIDE OF THIS
THOUGH...MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE
BERING SEA/CHAIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LOW ROTATES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. FURTHER OUT
WEST...A STRONG KAMCHATKA UPPER LOW/SURFACE LOW COMBO BRINGS STRONG
WINDS AND RAIN TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS A
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE
CLASH BETWEEN THE WARM AIR BROUGHT NORTH BY THE WESTERN SYSTEM AND
THE COLD AIR SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE EASTERN TROUGH IS DRIVING THE
JET STREAM IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TODAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREDOMINANT. BRISK NORTH FLOW OFF OF THE ICE
EDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE AKPEN...THOUGH THESE
LOOK TO DIMINISH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT. THE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE PACIFIC LOW AROUND 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA. A SLUG OF SNOW AND RAIN ENVELOPS THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN NOSING EASTWARD. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ADVANCING AHEAD OF THIS
STRONG LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN REMAINS THE
STORY IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE
LOW IN THE GULF AND HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO AREAS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS LOW WILL SOON TRACK SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS IT HEADS IN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH. THIS DOWNWARD TREND OF WIND SPEEDS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT
AND THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE GONE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

INVERTED TROUGHS CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA THIS EVENING
BUT WILL DIE DOWN AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW WILL ALSO
TAKE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH IT CLEARING OUT THE SKIES OVER MANY
AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER TEMPS IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SOUTHWEST...
LOOK FOR COLD AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
COURTESY OF A BUILDING RIDGE. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL THREATS STILL
LOOMS THOUGH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BERING/ALEUTIAN SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS HOWEVER
ALSO SHOULD TEMPER OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC LOW MOVES THROUGH. COLD ADVECTION
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT WHEN
COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES...WE EXPECT HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN CHAIN ON MONDAY...AND STORM FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING/CHAIN. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO
NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY BRING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE THREAT AFTER TAKING A PEEK AT THE 00Z
RUNS THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND FRONT WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT ENDING THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION. A WEAK SHOWERY PATTERN THEN ENSUES FOR
MID-WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTER A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY THIS WEEK THE COLD
CORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE FOR TE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. AT THAT
TIME THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO KEEP COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191. BLIZZARD WATCH 195.
MARINE...GALE 121 130 132 138 150 155 170 179 185.
  STORM 172.
  HURRICANE FORCE WIND 175 176
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MTL/DWK/JAM/EZ MAR 12