Small Craft Advisory 177, NWS Anchorage, AK

223 
FZAK51 PAFC 061254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW 60 NM NORTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE 65
NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE SUCKLING TUE AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WED WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 15 KT EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 1
FT BUILDING TO 3 FT BY AFTERNOON. SNOW DURING THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE MAR 6 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THIS MORNING...WHILE
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A FRONT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. SNOW IS FALLING IN THE COLDER AIR JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE ALEUTIANS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS THIS MORNING...AND WHILE
THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT TERM THEY DO
BECOME QUITE SIGNIFICANT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED MODEL OVERALL...AND WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HPC DATA WAS
USED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW FOR THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD PAST THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND FILL IN
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY TONIGHT AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING AFTER THE STEADY SNOWFALL ENDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THIS STORM...SO THERE ARE NO WARNING/ADVISORY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THESE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING...SO WE WILL EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS
FOR BOTH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY COASTS. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING UP QUICKLY ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
MAINLAND TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE AS SIGNIFICANT OF A WARM UP. THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE ARE STILL MANY DIFFERENT IDEAS AMONG THE MODELS OF WHAT WILL
HAPPEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SEEMS TO HAVE THE LEAST CONSISTENCY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES. IT DOES SEEM CLEAR THAT ADDITIONAL LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AK AS WELL AS THE
BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155 161
MARINE...GALES...150 155 170 172 175 176 352 411 412 413
         FREEZING SPRAY...411 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.