Small Craft Advisory 174, NWS Anchorage, AK

791 
FZAK52 PAFC 041555 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
655 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

UPDATED ZONES 155 165 170 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 170 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB 
SUN NIGHT 400 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA THEN WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 400 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
655 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FROM 
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING 
S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-050300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-050300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
655 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-050300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
655 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SW 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-050300-
UNALASKA BAY
655 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT BY NOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING 
TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...21
FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 50 KT 
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-050300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

019 
FZAK52 PAFC 050012
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 968 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 
995 MB AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM NORTH OF SAINT PAUL TUE AFTERNOON. 
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST MON MORNING AND THEN INLAND 
MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 14
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES...
DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS EVENING. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT 
THIS EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT...GUSTING TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT...GUSTING TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 14 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 
20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1145 AM AKST SAT MAR 3 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS AMPLIFIED BUT
PROGRESSIVE...MEANING SYSTEMS WILL NOT LINGER IN ANY ONE PLACE
TOO LONG. THIS MORNING THERE IS A TROUGH CENTERED OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE GULF...A RIDGE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC TO
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA...AND A TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF ASIA INTO
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS
COMBINING WITH WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT-WAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE GULF
TROUGH AND WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO KICK THIS LOW EASTWARD. COLD
ADVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY JET ARE PRODUCING
STRONG GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. OUT WEST A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA
TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS GRADUALLY STRETCHING APART AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MUCH WARMER AIR MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ARE APPROACHING 40 DEGREES. A DEVELOPING LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL HELP PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND SHOW GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW QUICKLY
TRACKS FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS THE GULF TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THIS WILL HELP PULL THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTHWARD.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL  ARRIVE AT THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY MORNING AND AND
QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS...FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT-SU. WITH THE FAST SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A HUGE DUMP OF SNOW...BUT WHAT
DOES FALL COULD BE INTENSE OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING...THIS WOULD BRING SNOW TO ANCHORAGE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT. THESE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE BERING. THERE MAY BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LOW VISIBILITY
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
BLIZZARD. HOWEVER A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE FRONT WILL HEAD QUICKLY INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT THE PARENT LOW WILL WANDER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MAINTAINING
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF ASIA WILL CAUSE
AMPLIFICATION IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS TO DEEPEN. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL FORCE IT TO TRACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY WARM AIR
TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE PRIBILOFS
WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FRO BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT AND RAPIDLY RISING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY DON'T
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET LOW ENOUGH FOR A BLIZZARD. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY SETTING UP A SHOWERY PATTERN AND CHANGING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE A DEEP TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM
MAINLAND ALASKA TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROPAGATION OF WAVES. PRIOR TO THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING SEA
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF MID WEEK BRINGING
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BRING A STRONG SYSTEM INTO THE GULF ON
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE BERING SEA REGION WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY REGIME
THROUGH MID WEEK AS COLD AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. THEN EXPECT ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK FORCING THE ARCTIC
AIR TO MAKE ANOTHER NORTHWARD RETREAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 185.
         GALE WARNING...132 138 170 172 175 176 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 132 138 140 141
                                        150 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 12