Small Craft Advisory 145, NWS Anchorage, AK

181 
FZAK52 PAFC 230027
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INLAND THU NIGHT.
A LARGE COMPLEX 986 MB LOW 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO
100 NM EAST OF SHEMYA THU EVENING AT 1000 MB AND THEN WEAKEN FRI
MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...WEST OF UNALASKA...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. FROM UNALASKA EAST...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING
TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SEGUAM ISLAND WESTWARD...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT IN BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 45 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
210 PM AKST TUE FEB 21 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MOST OBVIOUS FEATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS AN
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM
SOUTH OF OUR DOMAIN. THE JET STREAM IS SENDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND AVALANCHE
DANGER. A BROAD UPPER TROF IS POSITIONED OVER ALASKA HELPING TO STEER
THE JET STREAM SOUTH OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. MULTIPLE WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MANY REGIONS WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCES.

AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OBVIOUS ON THE SATELLITE...A FEW
OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN GULF POINT TOWARD A REMNANT SURFACE LOW
BETWEEN MIDDLETON ISLAND AND MONTAGUE ISLAND. COUPLED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE...THIS SURFACE LOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS APPARENT
ON SATELLITE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN BERING SEA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE EAST...THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES AT 18Z AND ARE VERY CONSISTENT AS WELL AS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT. MINIMAL CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE FOCUS WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER CERTAIN REGIONS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE
CURRENT PATTERN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING IS
LINGERING AND A BIT MORE STEADY THEN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING NORTH APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUS MODELS HAD INDICATED. ALTHOUGH CLEARING CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTHWARD IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT OF THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
SNOW.

THE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER ANCHORAGE AND WILL MOVE
NORTH THIS EVENING SO DO EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING OVER ANCHORAGE WHILE THE MATSU VALLEY...SUSITNA VALLEY...AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN ALL MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MARGINAL CEILINGS AND FLURRIES RETURNING TO THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
CLEARING PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL GO THROUGH CYCLES OF STRENGTHENING AND
WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHICH WILL HELP START TO DRY THE REGION OUT AND USHER THE REMNANT LOW
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR DOMAIN.

A SHARP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE VERY PLEASANT WEATHER BY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST...
THE WEAK LOW THAT IS APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL MOVE INLAND
OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM BRISTOL BAY
UP TO THE KUSKO DELTA...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG TO INVADE THE REGION. INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL
SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS...BUT MARGINAL TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT SNOW FINALLY TAPERS OFF THURSDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG...CONDITIONS WILL DRASTICALLY
IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
CHANCE OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER OUT WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING.
THESE LIGHT TO MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

FURTHER WEST...A LARGE AND VERY COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS LOW WILL
RAPIDLY OCCLUDE WITH NUMEROUS CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT WILL
MARCH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PROGRESSING MUCH FASTER GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OBSTRUCTING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT GREATLY DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND SIZE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...LEAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...172 175 176 411 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB FEB 12